Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$272.4

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,910

Combined PnL-$483

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,649

Combined PnL+$210.6

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$112.5	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0	34% 66-131 (197)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 92.9¢	$3.7K	$1.4K	-$533.98	81% 4107-977 (5084)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$442.99	$630.19	+$187.2	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.1¢	$359.99	$344.3	-$15.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9¢	$83	$285.89	+$202.89
RN1CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$40.5	$251.1	+$210.6	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86.9¢	$283.47	$225.15	-$58.32	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$53.59	$53.18	+$1.52	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 94¢	$17.7	$13	-$4.71	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,724.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$112.5

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

66-131 (197)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$3,694.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$533.98

Record

81%

4107-977 (5084)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$442.99

Value

$630.19

PnL

+$187.2

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

No$359.9972.1¢-$15.69

Yes$839¢+$202.89

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$251.1

PnL

+$210.6

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$283.47

Value

$225.15

PnL

-$58.32

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.59

Value

$53.18

PnL

+$1.52

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$13

PnL

-$4.71

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.