Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$644.72

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 92.5¢

+28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares22,516

Combined PnL+$466.44

No8 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares8,795

Combined PnL+$178.28

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$5.0K	$5.5K	+$512	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
oieshfn345	Noavg 82.4¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$218.76	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
AN Anon455	Noavg 65¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$208.81	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 62¢	$670.53	$767.87	+$97.34	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$441.52	$466.92	+$25.4	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$342.13	$366.72	+$24.6
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$99.39	$100.19	+$0.8
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 71.7¢	$387.66	$463.12	+$75.46	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$401.35	$431.08	+$29.73	22% 47-166 (213)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$269.6	$150.97	-$118.62	57% 881-656 (1537)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$135	$145	+$22.5	51% 980-932 (1912)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$114.81	$133.43	+$18.62	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 19.1¢	$87.28	$107.16	+$19.88	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$88.5	$80.33	-$8.17	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
RE retarb<$100	Noavg 75¢	$37.5	$43	+$5.5	50% 3020-2986 (6006)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$26.7	$27.65	+$0.95	55% 1302-1044 (2346)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 74¢	$23.57	$23.07	-$0.5	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,968.93

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$512

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

oieshfn345

Invested

$3,509.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$218.76

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Anon455

Invested

$2,262.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$208.81

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$670.53

Value

$767.87

PnL

+$97.34

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$441.52

Value

$466.92

PnL

+$25.4

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

Both legs:

Yes$342.1335¢+$24.6

No$99.3962¢+$0.8

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$387.66

Value

$463.12

PnL

+$75.46

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR

Yes

Invested

$401.35

Value

$431.08

PnL

+$29.73

Record

22%

47-166 (213)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$269.6

Value

$150.97

PnL

-$118.62

Record

57%

881-656 (1537)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$135

Value

$145

PnL

+$22.5

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$114.81

Value

$133.43

PnL

+$18.62

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$87.28

Value

$107.16

PnL

+$19.88

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$88.5

Value

$80.33

PnL

-$8.17

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

retarb<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$43

PnL

+$5.5

Record

50%

3020-2986 (6006)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.7

Value

$27.65

PnL

+$0.95

Record

55%

1302-1044 (2346)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.57

Value

$23.07

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.