Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 65¢ · $843 held · ends Oct 25

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$843.08

Combined PnL

$3.78

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$604.85

Total Shares928

Combined PnL+$3.33

No2 traders

Total Value$238.22

Total Shares681

Combined PnL+$0.45

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 65¢	$432.9	$432.9	+$0	56% 6332-5072 (11404)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 35¢	$206.92	$206.92	-$0	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 63.7¢	$157.68	$160.92	+$3.23	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$30.41	$31.3	+$0.45	53% 13575-12013 (25588)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$10.99	$11.04	+$0.1	54% 13750-11556 (25306)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$432.9

Value

$432.9

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6332-5072 (11404)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$206.92

Value

$206.92

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$157.68

Value

$160.92

PnL

+$3.23

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$30.41

Value

$31.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.99

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.