Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.5K
-$86.58
51.1¢ → 47.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ReformedxCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$84.49 | 53% 739-662 (1401) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $711.04 | $240.37 | -$6.19 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $100 | $97.92 | +$2.08 | 51% 246-241 (487) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $29.61 | $31.82 | +$1.91 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $5.64 | $5.75 | +$0.11 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
ReformedxCTRInvested
$1,255.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$84.49
Record
53%
739-662 (1401)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$711.04
Value
$240.37
PnL
-$6.19
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$100
Value
$97.92
PnL
+$2.08
Record
51%
246-241 (487)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$29.61
Value
$31.82
PnL
+$1.91
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.