Barrow AFC vs. Forest Green Rovers FC: O/U 0.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 24

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sat, Oct 24, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$600.81

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 87.7¢

-10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,858

Combined PnL-$188.47

Under3 traders

Total Value$917.63

Total Shares7,400

Combined PnL+$789.28

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Overavg 97.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$181.65	62% 8618-5270 (13888)
LO looppauCTR	Underavg 2.2¢	$107.18	$604.39	+$497.21	99% 8978-41 (9019)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Underavg 0.7¢	$18.17	$310.76	+$292.59	58% 567-416 (983)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 96.5¢	$76.61	$67.11	-$6.82	64% 913-510 (1423)
GO gotozer0CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$3	$2.48	-$0.52	66% 278-144 (422)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$1,780.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$181.65

Record

62%

8618-5270 (13888)

looppauCTR

Under

Invested

$107.18

Value

$604.39

PnL

+$497.21

Record

99%

8978-41 (9019)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Under

Invested

$18.17

Value

$310.76

PnL

+$292.59

Record

58%

567-416 (983)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$76.61

Value

$67.11

PnL

-$6.82

Record

64%

913-510 (1423)

gotozer0CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.52

Record

66%

278-144 (422)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.