Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 35¢ · $861 held · ends Oct 28

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$861.13

Combined PnL

-$70.39

Research grade

AvoidYes at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$484.81

Total Shares1,701

Combined PnL-$52.31

No3 traders

Total Value$376.32

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$18.08

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$537.13	$484.81	-$52.31	38% 569-936 (1505)
balthazar	Noavg 77.5¢	$278.69	$257	-$21.69	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
BI bipbipbop<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$58.43	$60.82	+$5.63	65% 2251-1231 (3482)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$73.24	$58.5	-$2.02	57% 12146-9242 (21388)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$537.13

Value

$484.81

PnL

-$52.31

Record

38%

569-936 (1505)

balthazar

Invested

$278.69

Value

$257

PnL

-$21.69

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

bipbipbop<$100

Invested

$58.43

Value

$60.82

PnL

+$5.63

Record

65%

2251-1231 (3482)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$73.24

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$2.02

Record

57%

12146-9242 (21388)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.