Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 42¢ · $688 held · ends Oct 28

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$688

Combined PnL

-$16.39

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 41.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$444.8

Total Shares1,284

Combined PnL-$49.37

No3 traders

Total Value$243.21

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$32.98

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$847.42	$429.74	-$45.21	38% 568-933 (1501)
balthazar	Noavg 57¢	$153.89	$176.84	+$22.95	62% 18200-10969 (29169)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 53.9¢	$37.97	$46.18	+$8.21	47% 2518-2870 (5388)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$25.2	$20.19	+$1.82	57% 11904-9099 (21003)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$111.32	$15.05	-$4.15	53% 5561-4835 (10396)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$847.42

Value

$429.74

PnL

-$45.21

Record

38%

568-933 (1501)

balthazar

Invested

$153.89

Value

$176.84

PnL

+$22.95

Record

62%

18200-10969 (29169)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$37.97

Value

$46.18

PnL

+$8.21

Record

47%

2518-2870 (5388)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$20.19

PnL

+$1.82

Record

57%

11904-9099 (21003)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.32

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$4.15

Record

53%

5561-4835 (10396)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.