Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 17¢ · $98 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$98.16
$22.37
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kamenshyk22CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $59.91 | $87.56 | +$27.65 | 22% 382-1363 (1745) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $276.02 | $9.75 | -$5.61 | 53% 5695-4971 (10666) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.55 | $0.84 | +$0.33 | 65% 2251-1231 (3482) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.