Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$7.76

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,026

Combined PnL-$7.52

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$0.24

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON onekey02	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$7.5	97% 351-10 (361)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.98	$25.96	-$0.02	36% 13289-23211 (36500)
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.23	$0.11	-$0.11	65% 2130-1123 (3253)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.25	$0.05	-$0.12	33% 2493-5058 (7551)
EL ElonSimpCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.01	$0	-$0	39% 181-288 (469)

onekey02

Invested

$4,990

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$7.5

Record

97%

351-10 (361)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$25.98

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

13289-23211 (36500)

bipbipbopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

65%

2130-1123 (3253)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.12

Record

33%

2493-5058 (7551)

ElonSimpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

181-288 (469)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.