Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $888 held · ends Oct 26

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$888.23

Combined PnL

$11.17

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 92.7¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$811.74

Total Shares811

Combined PnL+$3.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.49

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL+$7.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 94.8¢	$1.6K	$781.69	+$2.8	66% 1964-1020 (2984)
EL ElonSimpCTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$163.26	$73.48	+$6.26	38% 165-270 (435)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94¢	$185.25	$30.05	+$0.42	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$31.07	$3.01	+$1.69	56% 3178-2517 (5695)

bipbipbop

Invested

$1,591.98

Value

$781.69

PnL

+$2.8

Record

66%

1964-1020 (2984)

ElonSimpCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.26

Value

$73.48

PnL

+$6.26

Record

38%

165-270 (435)

ghorrock

Invested

$185.25

Value

$30.05

PnL

+$0.42

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.07

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$1.69

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.0%

92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.