Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 33%
$2.0K
$366.46
Research grade
AvoidNo at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.0K | +$88.53 | 64% 2282-1266 (3548) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $703.88 | $960.07 | +$256.21 | 38% 581-947 (1528) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $7.7 | $31.5 | +$21.72 | 18% 3722-16525 (20247) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.