Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$16.79

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 95.2¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,979

Combined PnL-$3.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.8

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$13.75

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 92.6¢	$9.4K	$3.8K	-$2.6	65% 2249-1231 (3480)
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 94.9¢	$104.06	$99.59	+$0.57	33% 188-380 (568)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$42.75	$42.57	-$0.18	32% 3794-7915 (11709)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 93.9¢	$350.13	$37.54	-$0.83	57% 11904-9099 (21003)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$28.55	$14.8	-$13.75	22% 382-1363 (1745)

bipbipbop

Invested

$9,433.51

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$2.6

Record

65%

2249-1231 (3480)

ElonSimp

Invested

$104.06

Value

$99.59

PnL

+$0.57

Record

33%

188-380 (568)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$42.75

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$0.18

Record

32%

3794-7915 (11709)

ghorrock

Invested

$350.13

Value

$37.54

PnL

-$0.83

Record

57%

11904-9099 (21003)

Kamenshyk22CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.55

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$13.75

Record

22%

382-1363 (1745)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.