Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$143.31

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 63¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$175.16

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$32.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$220.39

Total Shares711

Combined PnL+$110.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbopARB<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	+$126.8	65% 2149-1147 (3296)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$675.25	$586.02	-$138.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.5¢	$243.77	$481.21	+$265.23
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 66.3¢	$1.1K	$158.72	+$39.68	54% 4489-3820 (8309)
Kamenshyk22CTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$57.77	$155	+$97.23	22% 382-1360 (1742)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$51.68	$65.39	+$13.71	37% 1928-3336 (5264)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$97.19	$16.43	-$7.31	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

bipbipbopARB<$100

Invested

$2,455.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$126.8

Record

65%

2149-1147 (3296)

Both legs:

No$675.2573.2¢-$138.43

Yes$243.7718.5¢+$265.23

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,051.52

Value

$158.72

PnL

+$39.68

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

Kamenshyk22CTR

Yes

Invested

$57.77

Value

$155

PnL

+$97.23

Record

22%

382-1360 (1742)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.68

Value

$65.39

PnL

+$13.71

Record

37%

1928-3336 (5264)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$97.19

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$7.31

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.