Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Walsall FC win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 27¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 26

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$161.6

Combined PnL

$4.53

Smart Money Entry

26.1¢ → 27¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$145.48

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$4.51

No1 trader

Total Value$16.12

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$126.49	$131.35	+$4.86	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$16.1	$16.12	+$0.02	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$14.19	$10.08	-$0.51	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$2.55	$2.7	+$0.15	54% 5914-5009 (10923)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	59% 43129-29562 (72691)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.49

Value

$131.35

PnL

+$4.86

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.19

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.51

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.