Will Salford City FC win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$226.45

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 53¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,873

Combined PnL-$48.51

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,593

Combined PnL-$177.94

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Noavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$34.71	45% 293-360 (653)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 57.2¢	$989.04	$817.24	-$171.8	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$237.61	$242.54	+$4.92	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 52.6¢	$254.1	$240.05	-$14.05	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$184	$188	+$4	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$31.9	$16.83	-$15.07	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$5.05	$5.3	+$0.25	54% 5914-5009 (10923)

metski29

Invested

$1,874.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$34.71

Record

45%

293-360 (653)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$989.04

Value

$817.24

PnL

-$171.8

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.61

Value

$242.54

PnL

+$4.92

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$254.1

Value

$240.05

PnL

-$14.05

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$184

Value

$188

PnL

+$4

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.9

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$15.07

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.