Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Walsall FC vs. Salford City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$33.39

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 49¢

-19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$759.34

Total Shares1,550

Combined PnL-$173.52

Over2 traders

Total Value$603.9

Total Shares1,071

Combined PnL+$140.13

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 60¢	$908.77	$742.68	-$166.1	72% 2158-825 (2983)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 38¢	$387.32	$501.98	+$114.66	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 38.9¢	$76.45	$101.92	+$25.47	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 70.8¢	$24.08	$16.66	-$7.42	59% 43129-29562 (72691)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$908.77

Value

$742.68

PnL

-$166.1

Record

72%

2158-825 (2983)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$387.32

Value

$501.98

PnL

+$114.66

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$76.45

Value

$101.92

PnL

+$25.47

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.08

Value

$16.66

PnL

-$7.42

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.3%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.