Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 50¢ · $941 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$941.42
$15.34
49.3¢ → 50¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 49.3¢ | $344.75 | $343 | +$8.75 | 58% 37344-27188 (64532) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 51¢ | $254.49 | $244.51 | -$9.98 | 49% 17262-17622 (34884) |
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081 | Overavg 48¢ | $192.36 | $202.38 | +$10.02 | 49% 171-179 (350) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 48.1¢ | $74.38 | $78.02 | +$3.64 | 55% 2151-1765 (3916) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 48.6¢ | $72.84 | $73.5 | +$2.91 | 57% 24239-18661 (42900) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$344.75
Value
$343
PnL
+$8.75
Record
58%
37344-27188 (64532)
Invested
$254.49
Value
$244.51
PnL
-$9.98
Record
49%
17262-17622 (34884)
Invested
$192.36
Value
$202.38
PnL
+$10.02
Record
49%
171-179 (350)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$74.38
Value
$78.02
PnL
+$3.64
Record
55%
2151-1765 (3916)
Invested
$72.84
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$2.91
Record
57%
24239-18661 (42900)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.