Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$4.7K
$13.9
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186 | Yesavg 89¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$25 | 96% 501-20 (521) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 11¢ | $213.84 | $213.84 | -$9.72 | 53% 15667-13841 (29508) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.7¢ | $12.64 | $12.95 | -$1.38 | 54% 2389-2024 (4413) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.