Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CD Tecnico Universitario win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 34¢ · $384 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$384.33
-$7.95
58.7¢ → 34¢
-42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $267.46 | $261.03 | -$6.43 | 53% 15316-13530 (28846) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63¢ | $143.64 | $135.66 | -$7.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $123.82 | $125.37 | +$1.55 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $68.97 | $68.4 | -$0.57 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $32.93 | $34.76 | +$1.83 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 39¢ | $202.08 | $13.58 | -$8.5 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.5¢ | $6.54 | $5.84 | -$0.7 | 50% 11018-11200 (22218) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $0.73 | $0.72 | -$0.01 | 55% 2171-1792 (3963) |
Invested
$267.46
Value
$261.03
PnL
-$6.43
Record
53%
15316-13530 (28846)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.97
Value
$68.4
PnL
-$0.57
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Invested
$32.93
Value
$34.76
PnL
+$1.83
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
VeryLucky888Invested
$202.08
Value
$13.58
PnL
-$8.5
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$6.54
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
11018-11200 (22218)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
2171-1792 (3963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.