Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SD Aucas win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 48¢ · $510 held · ends Oct 25

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$510.15

Combined PnL

-$4.56

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$209.79

Total Shares417

Combined PnL-$0.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$300.35

Total Shares552

Combined PnL-$4.43

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 48¢	$207.57	$207.39	-$0.18	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 53¢	$159	$156	-$3	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$54.06	$53.04	-$1.02	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$50.84	$50.09	-$0.75	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$40.88	$41.23	+$0.35	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	49% 10947-11320 (22267)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$207.57

Value

$207.39

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$159

Value

$156

PnL

-$3

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.06

Value

$53.04

PnL

-$1.02

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.84

Value

$50.09

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.88

Value

$41.23

PnL

+$0.35

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

10947-11320 (22267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.