Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $347 held · ends Oct 25

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$346.65

Combined PnL

-$3.47

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 80¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$154.23

Total Shares196

Combined PnL-$4.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.75

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$0.96

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$178.53	$178.67	+$0.14	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$138.36	$137.5	-$0.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$40.17	$41.17	+$1
CA Cannae	Noavg 80.7¢	$101.23	$98.5	-$2.74	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 81¢	$54.27	$52.6	-$1.68	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12.79	$13.75	+$0.96	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.16	$3.14	-$0.02	58% 1363-997 (2360)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$178.53

Value

$178.67

PnL

+$0.14

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

Both legs:

No$138.3680¢-$0.86

Yes$40.1720¢+$1

Cannae

Invested

$101.23

Value

$98.5

PnL

-$2.74

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54.27

Value

$52.6

PnL

-$1.68

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.79

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0.96

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.