Will Leones Futbol Club win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$1.73

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 54.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL+$8.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$17.7

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$7.16

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 51.6¢	$862.78	$881.05	+$18.27	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$270.28	$268.44	-$1.32	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.6¢	$216.72	$213.85	-$2.87
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$53.56	$54.59	+$1.55
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54¢	$602.02	$212	-$9.81	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$110.75	$109.51	-$1.4	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.5¢	$65.24	$65.86	-$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$45.51	$43.65	-$1.39
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$24.86	$17.7	-$7.16	63% 22623-13356 (35979)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Noavg 50¢	$6.03	$6.39	+$0.42	55% 1303-1046 (2349)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$862.78

Value

$881.05

PnL

+$18.27

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$270.28

Value

$268.44

PnL

-$1.32

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

Yes$216.7247.6¢-$2.87

No$53.5652¢+$1.55

VeryLucky888

Invested

$602.02

Value

$212

PnL

-$9.81

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$110.75

Value

$109.51

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

Both legs:

No$65.2452.5¢-$0

Yes$45.5149¢-$1.39

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.86

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$7.16

Record

63%

22623-13356 (35979)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

1303-1046 (2349)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.