CS Emelec vs. Guayaquil City FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 58¢ · $922 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 100%
$921.86
-$17.73
59.8¢ → 58¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 61.1¢ | $747.21 | $709.41 | -$37.8 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $192.38 | $212.45 | +$20.07 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.