Will Guayaquil City FC win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $921 held · ended Oct 25

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$920.78

Combined PnL

-$258

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 51¢

-36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$727.31

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL-$370.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$193.47

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$112.22

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 79.7¢	$1.1K	$720.68	-$374.12	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$319	$192	+$113.06	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.73	$6.63	+$3.9	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$2.31	$1.47	-$0.84	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,094.8

Value

$720.68

PnL

-$374.12

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$319

Value

$192

PnL

+$113.06

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$3.9

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.31

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.84

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.