Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Yandex, while the market favors Team Liquid (100%). 35 of 59 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

35 of 59 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (59%) · Team Yandex at 0.1¢ · $303K held · ended Oct 26

Team Yandex<1¢Team Liquid>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$303.0K

Combined PnL

$19.8K

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Yandex at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

35 of 59 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Team Liquid 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex0%

Team Liquid100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid24 traders

Total Value$86.3K

Total Shares240,519

Combined PnL$-20.2K

Team Yandex35 traders

Total Value$209.8K

Total Shares231,829

Combined PnL+$40.0K

Team Liquid — 41%Team Yandex — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Yandex 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Yandex 77% · 13

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 54% · 37

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Yandex 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 57% · 49

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LhordGryffin	Team Liquidavg 99.9¢	$32.7K	$32.7K	+$16.36	99% 1083-12 (1095)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Team Yandexavg 79¢	$27.6K	$31.3K	+$3.7K	58% 1830-1314 (3144)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Yandexavg 65.6¢	$20.0K	$27.3K	+$7.3K	58% 857-624 (1481)
GX gxxyyCTR	Team Yandexavg 74.2¢	$21.5K	$26.0K	+$4.4K	69% 465-211 (676)
Q7 q7662504	Team Liquidavg 96.8¢	$25.2K	$20.3K	$-2.0K	89% 336-43 (379)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Team Yandexavg 79.4¢	$16.9K	$19.0K	+$2.1K	50% 1116-1109 (2225)
relativesignificance	Team Liquidavg 21.9¢	$3.0K	$13.8K	$-1.6K	58% 75-54 (129)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Yandexavg 29.5¢	$5.8K	$13.4K	+$7.6K	51% 576-558 (1134)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Yandexavg 59.5¢	$7.9K	$11.1K	+$3.1K	48% 745-795 (1540)
Medo3DCTR	Team Yandexavg 44.2¢	$6.1K	$8.3K	+$2.3K	38% 147-236 (383)
BE BettongCTR	Team Yandexavg 74.6¢	$11.3K	$8.2K	+$1.7K	56% 325-260 (585)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Yandexavg 43¢	$18.3K	$7.4K	$-2.6K	70% 48-21 (69)
PO pol2131CTR	Team Yandexavg 71.4¢	$5.9K	$7.4K	+$1.5K	46% 388-462 (850)
0xheavy888CTR	Team Yandexavg 62.2¢	$6.2K	$7.4K	+$1.1K	56% 6694-5364 (12058)
BA babyboy9CTR	Team Yandexavg 69.4¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$190.71	55% 331-274 (605)
CyberScore.live	Team Liquidavg 18.5¢	$10.1K	$5.7K	$-4.4K	46% 385-454 (839)
JO JoofoxCTR	Team Yandexavg 49.6¢	$3.0K	$5.4K	+$2.4K	62% 63-39 (102)
JA JameslyyCTR	Team Yandexavg 78.3¢	$4.7K	$5.4K	+$671.58	66% 753-383 (1136)
GE GeorgeReARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 23.2¢	$5.1K	$4.1K	$-1.0K	54% 1056-915 (1971)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 45.9¢	$1.2K	$2.3K	+$1.1K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 23.2¢	$3.9K	$1.8K	$-2.1K
NA natorgatorontopCTR	Team Yandexavg 80¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$393.75	61% 263-169 (432)
Blueberry1337CTR	Team Yandexavg 74¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$573.5	58% 1014-724 (1738)
PI pipipi150CTR	Team Yandexavg 63.1¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$548.34	65% 1663-899 (2562)
forsenxdCTR	Team Yandexavg 69.5¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$604.45	53% 1013-881 (1894)
0X 0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314CTR	Team Yandexavg 80¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$315	58% 1713-1247 (2960)
FA facaigegeCTR	Team Yandexavg 47¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	49% 370-388 (758)

LhordGryffin

Team Liquid

Invested

$32,679.67

Value

$32.7K

PnL

+$16.36

Record

99%

1083-12 (1095)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$27,650

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

58%

1830-1314 (3144)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$20,008.41

Value

$27.3K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

58%

857-624 (1481)

gxxyyCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$21,539.36

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

69%

465-211 (676)

q7662504

Team Liquid

Invested

$25,227.73

Value

$20.3K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

89%

336-43 (379)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$16,866.89

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1116-1109 (2225)

relativesignificance

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,028.18

Value

$13.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

75-54 (129)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,813.06

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

51%

576-558 (1134)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$7,939.8

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

48%

745-795 (1540)

Medo3DCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,050.11

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

38%

147-236 (383)

BettongCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$11,301.32

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

56%

325-260 (585)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$18,327.93

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

70%

48-21 (69)

pol2131CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,923.99

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

46%

388-462 (850)

0xheavy888CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,236.85

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

6694-5364 (12058)

babyboy9CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,912.52

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$190.71

Record

55%

331-274 (605)

CyberScore.live

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,101.51

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

46%

385-454 (839)

JoofoxCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,000

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

62%

63-39 (102)

JameslyyCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,698.41

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$671.58

Record

66%

753-383 (1136)

GeorgeReARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,076.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

1056-915 (1971)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$1,172.6445.9¢+$1.1K

Team Liquid$3,903.3723.2¢$-2.1K

natorgatorontopCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$393.75

Record

61%

263-169 (432)

Blueberry1337CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,737.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$573.5

Record

58%

1014-724 (1738)

pipipi150CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,326.55

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$548.34

Record

65%

1663-899 (2562)

forsenxdCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,099.95

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$604.45

Record

53%

1013-881 (1894)

0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$315

Record

58%

1713-1247 (2960)

facaigegeCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,409.39

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

49%

370-388 (758)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Yandex at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

35 of 59 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Team Liquid 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Yandex 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Yandex 77% · 13

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 54% · 37

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Yandex 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 57% · 49

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.