Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

35 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (61%) · Team Yandex at 100¢ · $327K held · ends Oct 26

Team Yandex>99¢Team Liquid<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 61%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$327.5K

Combined PnL

$-7.7K

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

35 of 57 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex100%

Team Liquid0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex35 traders

Total Value$293.9K

Total Shares343,595

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Team Liquid22 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares179,493

Combined PnL$-10.2K

Team Yandex — 61%Team Liquid — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Yandex 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Yandex 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyWin	Team Yandexavg 99.9¢	$65.6K	$65.7K	+$59.32	85% 724-127 (851)
Sunshine.Smile	Team Yandexavg 75.8¢	$50.4K	$48.2K	$-2.2K	58% 1824-1310 (3134)
Q7 q7662504	Team Yandexavg 95.6¢	$19.1K	$19.4K	+$263.4	89% 332-43 (375)
Medo3D	Team Yandexavg 78¢	$22.5K	$18.9K	$-3.6K	38% 145-236 (381)
relativesignificance	Team Yandexavg 76.3¢	$18.0K	$18.5K	+$517.74	60% 75-51 (126)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Yandexavg 80.4¢	$19.5K	$17.6K	$-1.9K	57% 652-500 (1152)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Yandexavg 72.5¢	$13.0K	$17.1K	+$4.1K	54% 1053-907 (1960)
R2 r2d2v2	Team Yandexavg 77.8¢	$10.9K	$11.0K	+$100	54% 278-234 (512)
MA madar78	Team Yandexavg 83.9¢	$9.3K	$8.3K	+$1.3K	65% 37-20 (57)
EX Excentrico	Team Yandexavg 86.6¢	$8.7K	$7.4K	-$216.88	64% 282-161 (443)
KateBollinger	Team Yandexavg 78.5¢	$7.5K	$6.9K	-$567.5	69% 1704-761 (2465)
ST StakesForFun	Team Yandexavg 82.3¢	$12.6K	$6.6K	+$667.65	62% 350-212 (562)
BA babyboy9ARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 69.3¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	+$219.64	55% 330-273 (603)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 69.3¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$339.12
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 26.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$119.48
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Yandexavg 68.8¢	$5.7K	$6.1K	+$394.42	58% 842-622 (1464)
RR rrooster	Team Yandexavg 81¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$175	63% 1295-771 (2066)
cat3xcat3x	Team Yandexavg 69¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	+$452.39	56% 308-244 (552)
TokennCTR	Team Liquidavg 22¢	$3.3K	$4.2K	+$830.61	48% 637-693 (1330)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 71.2¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$93.57	65% 1642-894 (2536)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 71.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$167.61
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 27.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$261.18
forsenxd	Team Yandexavg 72.2¢	$4.8K	$3.5K	+$13.83	54% 1010-877 (1887)
OR origatoCTR	Team Liquidavg 19.7¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$403.97	82% 18-4 (22)
JO Joofox	Team Yandexavg 71.3¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$118.13	63% 63-37 (100)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	Team Liquidavg 22.3¢	$9.8K	$2.8K	$-6.9K	56% 29-23 (52)
JA Jameslyy	Team Yandexavg 75¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$622.78	68% 753-348 (1101)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Team Yandexavg 77¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$97.4	50% 319-313 (632)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Liquidavg 25.2¢	$3.3K	$2.3K	$-1.0K	51% 574-556 (1130)

LuckyWin

Team Yandex

Invested

$65,598.9

Value

$65.7K

PnL

+$59.32

Record

85%

724-127 (851)

Sunshine.Smile

Team Yandex

Invested

$50,395.16

Value

$48.2K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

58%

1824-1310 (3134)

q7662504

Team Yandex

Invested

$19,100.77

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$263.4

Record

89%

332-43 (375)

Medo3D

Team Yandex

Invested

$22,502.94

Value

$18.9K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

38%

145-236 (381)

relativesignificance

Team Yandex

Invested

$17,970.21

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$517.74

Record

60%

75-51 (126)

Sisyphus-

Team Yandex

Invested

$19,528

Value

$17.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

57%

652-500 (1152)

GeorgeRe

Team Yandex

Invested

$13,016.09

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

54%

1053-907 (1960)

r2d2v2

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,890

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$100

Record

54%

278-234 (512)

madar78

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,338.38

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

65%

37-20 (57)

Excentrico

Team Yandex

Invested

$8,666

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$216.88

Record

64%

282-161 (443)

KateBollinger

Team Yandex

Invested

$7,455

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$567.5

Record

69%

1704-761 (2465)

StakesForFun

Team Yandex

Invested

$12,593.25

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$667.65

Record

62%

350-212 (562)

babyboy9ARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,274.3

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$219.64

Record

55%

330-273 (603)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$4,499.9469.3¢+$339.12

Team Liquid$1,363.626.6¢-$119.48

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,711.38

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$394.42

Record

58%

842-622 (1464)

rrooster

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,669.99

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$175

Record

63%

1295-771 (2066)

cat3xcat3x

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,936.11

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$452.39

Record

56%

308-244 (552)

TokennCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,322.43

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$830.61

Record

48%

637-693 (1330)

pipipi150ARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,586.78

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$93.57

Record

65%

1642-894 (2536)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$2,054.671.2¢+$167.61

Team Liquid$1,532.1727.7¢-$261.18

forsenxd

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,781.88

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$13.83

Record

54%

1010-877 (1887)

origatoCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,679.4

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$403.97

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

Joofox

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$118.13

Record

63%

63-37 (100)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,753.55

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

56%

29-23 (52)

Jameslyy

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,130.33

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$622.78

Record

68%

753-348 (1101)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$97.4

Record

50%

319-313 (632)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,283.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

574-556 (1130)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

35 of 57 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Yandex 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Yandex 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.