Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (59%) · Team Yandex at 75¢ · $30K held · ends Oct 26

Team Yandex75¢Team Liquid25¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 59%

Total Value

$30.3K

Combined PnL

$987.99

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 74.5¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex75%

Team Liquid26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid7 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares33,013

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Team Yandex10 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares26,525

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Team Liquid — 41%Team Yandex — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888CTR	Team Liquidavg 40¢	$4.5K	$6.0K	+$1.5K	43% 9-12 (21)
VI vibing123CTR	Team Liquidavg 42.9¢	$4.1K	$5.1K	+$1.0K	53% 1459-1318 (2777)
51 0x512d...5087	Team Yandexavg 60¢	$6.0K	$4.7K	$-1.4K	—
forsenxd	Team Yandexavg 56¢	$4.1K	$3.4K	-$687.14	54% 1010-877 (1887)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Team Liquidavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$475	51% 1101-1057 (2158)
DR drunkdegenerateCTR	Team Liquidavg 43¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$384.78	54% 187-157 (344)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Team Yandexavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$248.95	50% 535-534 (1069)
A8 a8999	Team Yandexavg 59.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18	45% 970-1194 (2164)
l0wkirkenuinelyCTR	Team Liquidavg 44¢	$748	$909.5	+$161.5	57% 188-144 (332)
T8 t89e4ygf6CTR	Team Liquidavg 44¢	$660	$802.5	+$142.5	43% 83-108 (191)
WE wewbo	Team Yandexavg 60¢	$734.98	$569.61	-$165.37	52% 127-118 (245)
KO korandnik	Team Yandexavg 57¢	$641.8	$523.61	-$118.19	77% 83-25 (108)
Blueberry1337	Team Yandexavg 56¢	$980.05	$473.92	-$46.52	58% 1010-721 (1731)
BA BAPEHUK	Team Yandexavg 56¢	$559.99	$465	-$95	50% 380-385 (765)
JA Jameslyy	Team Yandexavg 56¢	$278.6	$270.97	-$7.63	68% 753-348 (1101)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Team Liquidavg 43¢	$215	$267.5	+$52.5	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
PO pol2131<$100	Team Yandexavg 51¢	$39.98	$36.45	-$3.53	46% 388-460 (848)

luckycat888888CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,458.97

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

43%

9-12 (21)

vibing123CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,075.95

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

1459-1318 (2777)

0x512d...5087

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

—

forsenxd

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,050.49

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$687.14

Record

54%

1010-877 (1887)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$475

Record

51%

1101-1057 (2158)

drunkdegenerateCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,575.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$384.78

Record

54%

187-157 (344)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,467.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$248.95

Record

50%

535-534 (1069)

a8999

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,085.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$18

Record

45%

970-1194 (2164)

l0wkirkenuinelyCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$748

Value

$909.5

PnL

+$161.5

Record

57%

188-144 (332)

t89e4ygf6CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$660

Value

$802.5

PnL

+$142.5

Record

43%

83-108 (191)

wewbo

Team Yandex

Invested

$734.98

Value

$569.61

PnL

-$165.37

Record

52%

127-118 (245)

korandnik

Team Yandex

Invested

$641.8

Value

$523.61

PnL

-$118.19

Record

77%

83-25 (108)

Blueberry1337

Team Yandex

Invested

$980.05

Value

$473.92

PnL

-$46.52

Record

58%

1010-721 (1731)

BAPEHUK

Team Yandex

Invested

$559.99

Value

$465

PnL

-$95

Record

50%

380-385 (765)

Jameslyy

Team Yandex

Invested

$278.6

Value

$270.97

PnL

-$7.63

Record

68%

753-348 (1101)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$215

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

pol2131<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$39.98

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$3.53

Record

46%

388-460 (848)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.