Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (70%) · Team Yandex at 92¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 26

Team Yandex92¢Team Liquid8¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 70%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

-$138.58

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 91.5¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Yandex at 92%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex92%

Team Liquid9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex7 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares24,413

Combined PnL-$114.91

Team Liquid3 traders

Total Value$549.08

Total Shares2,720

Combined PnL-$23.67

Team Yandex — 70%Team Liquid — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Yandex 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR TrippleEX	Team Yandexavg 82¢	$7.3K	$7.1K	-$177.91	58% 273-201 (474)
MA madkkee	Team Yandexavg 80¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$42.77	66% 965-500 (1465)
OJ ojgtubvdt	Team Yandexavg 84¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$45	63% 627-376 (1003)
OA oafloaf	Team Yandexavg 79.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$82.73	70% 137-58 (195)
VO Volodyabandit	Team Yandexavg 83.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18.49	76% 243-77 (320)
T8 t89e4ygf6CTR	Team Liquidavg 18¢	$234	$227.5	-$6.5	43% 83-108 (191)
GT gt7238CTR	Team Liquidavg 18¢	$132.48	$195.04	-$18.4	45% 549-661 (1210)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Team Liquidavg 18.3¢	$125.31	$126.54	+$1.23	46% 832-995 (1827)
poshposh<$100	Team Yandexavg 87¢	$90.28	$91.32	+$1.04	62% 8618-5270 (13888)
TO TommyLeePeeca<$100	Team Yandexavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.25	-$0.05	54% 953-801 (1754)

TrippleEX

Team Yandex

Invested

$7,294.14

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$177.91

Record

58%

273-201 (474)

madkkee

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,844

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$42.77

Record

66%

965-500 (1465)

ojgtubvdt

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$45

Record

63%

627-376 (1003)

oafloaf

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,006.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$82.73

Record

70%

137-58 (195)

Volodyabandit

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,105

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$18.49

Record

76%

243-77 (320)

t89e4ygf6CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$234

Value

$227.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

43%

83-108 (191)

gt7238CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$132.48

Value

$195.04

PnL

-$18.4

Record

45%

549-661 (1210)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$125.31

Value

$126.54

PnL

+$1.23

Record

46%

832-995 (1827)

poshposh<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$90.28

Value

$91.32

PnL

+$1.04

Record

62%

8618-5270 (13888)

TommyLeePeeca<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

953-801 (1754)

Research grade

Research candidateTeam Yandex at 92%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Yandex 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.