Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win - Game 1 Winner

34 of 64 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (53%) · Team Yandex at 100¢ · $284K held · ends Oct 25

Team Yandex>99¢1win<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$284.3K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

34 of 64 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex100%

1win0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex34 traders

Total Value$239.8K

Total Shares270,788

Combined PnL+$9.5K

1win30 traders

Total Value$43.8K

Total Shares272,060

Combined PnL$-14.9K

Team Yandex — 53%1win — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Mooseborzoiii	Team Yandexavg 79.6¢	$45.0K	$46.6K	+$1.6K	35% 12-22 (34)
DE depresssin	Team Yandexavg 99.9¢	$31.3K	$31.4K	+$15.69	84% 1165-224 (1389)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Yandexavg 80¢	$24.6K	$25.4K	+$775.41	55% 572-467 (1039)
GX gxxyy	Team Yandexavg 83.3¢	$23.8K	$22.4K	$-1.4K	70% 431-187 (618)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Yandexavg 79.3¢	$19.1K	$19.1K	+$1.0K	54% 1005-873 (1878)
Q7 q7662504	Team Yandexavg 94¢	$11.8K	$11.7K	-$124.83	89% 322-40 (362)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Yandexavg 77.9¢	$11.0K	$11.6K	+$649.72	61% 715-461 (1176)
CyberScore.liveCTR	1winavg 21.6¢	$9.8K	$8.0K	$-1.9K	45% 333-406 (739)
MA madar78	Team Yandexavg 79.6¢	$22.0K	$7.6K	+$1.6K	69% 31-14 (45)
Tokenn	Team Yandexavg 78.5¢	$6.7K	$7.0K	+$342.49	48% 612-675 (1287)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Yandexavg 67.1¢	$5.1K	$6.6K	+$1.5K	47% 643-717 (1360)
JA Jameslyy	Team Yandexavg 78.7¢	$6.3K	$6.6K	+$305	66% 661-336 (997)
Medo3DCTR	1winavg 21.1¢	$7.1K	$5.9K	$-1.2K	38% 143-229 (372)
BA babyboy9	Team Yandexavg 77.2¢	$4.8K	$5.8K	+$1.0K	55% 317-264 (581)
NA natorgatorontop	Team Yandexavg 74.8¢	$5.1K	$5.7K	+$527.2	60% 247-162 (409)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	1winavg 20¢	$6.0K	$5.3K	-$752.87	54% 2339-2016 (4355)
JO Joofox	Team Yandexavg 79.9¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$162.19	63% 57-34 (91)
maytopmay	Team Yandexavg 80.3¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$105.25	61% 256-166 (422)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	1winavg 24.2¢	$5.0K	$3.6K	$-1.4K	58% 1637-1191 (2828)
EX Excentrico	Team Yandexavg 79¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$196.69	63% 274-159 (433)
KA KaguyaNgCTR	1winavg 19.6¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$435.06	48% 308-332 (640)
LL llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlI	Team Yandexavg 80.3¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$94.71	59% 745-528 (1273)
enpirugbrpti	Team Yandexavg 76¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$265.78	54% 3448-2927 (6375)
MO momijidanCTR	1winavg 21.8¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	-$716.93	52% 173-161 (334)
1R 1rerrr	Team Yandexavg 75¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$263.9	59% 1105-754 (1859)

Mooseborzoiii

Team Yandex

Invested

$45,004.34

Value

$46.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

35%

12-22 (34)

depresssin

Team Yandex

Invested

$31,340.63

Value

$31.4K

PnL

+$15.69

Record

84%

1165-224 (1389)

Sisyphus-

Team Yandex

Invested

$24,585.5

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$775.41

Record

55%

572-467 (1039)

gxxyy

Team Yandex

Invested

$23,772.69

Value

$22.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

70%

431-187 (618)

GeorgeRe

Team Yandex

Invested

$19,126.5

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

1005-873 (1878)

q7662504

Team Yandex

Invested

$11,817.32

Value

$11.7K

PnL

-$124.83

Record

89%

322-40 (362)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Yandex

Invested

$11,000

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$649.72

Record

61%

715-461 (1176)

CyberScore.liveCTR

1win

Invested

$9,813.94

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

45%

333-406 (739)

madar78

Team Yandex

Invested

$22,007.95

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

69%

31-14 (45)

Tokenn

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,691.08

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$342.49

Record

48%

612-675 (1287)

RandomVibecoder

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,140.59

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

47%

643-717 (1360)

Jameslyy

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,294.97

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$305

Record

66%

661-336 (997)

Medo3DCTR

1win

Invested

$7,121.22

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

38%

143-229 (372)

babyboy9

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,802.1

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

317-264 (581)

natorgatorontop

Team Yandex

Invested

$5,148.81

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$527.2

Record

60%

247-162 (409)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

1win

Invested

$6,022.98

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$752.87

Record

54%

2339-2016 (4355)

Joofox

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,999.51

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$162.19

Record

63%

57-34 (91)

maytopmay

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,882.17

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$105.25

Record

61%

256-166 (422)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

1win

Invested

$5,033.55

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

58%

1637-1191 (2828)

Excentrico

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,422

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$196.69

Record

63%

274-159 (433)

KaguyaNgCTR

1win

Invested

$4,044.91

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$435.06

Record

48%

308-332 (640)

llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlI

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,487.44

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$94.71

Record

59%

745-528 (1273)

enpirugbrpti

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,107.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$265.78

Record

54%

3448-2927 (6375)

momijidanCTR

1win

Invested

$3,627.87

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$716.93

Record

52%

173-161 (334)

1rerrr

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,638.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$263.9

Record

59%

1105-754 (1859)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

34 of 64 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.