Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (67%) · Team Yandex at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25

Team Yandex95¢1win5¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 67%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$669.35

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 94.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex95%

1win6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Yandex6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,941

Combined PnL-$29.58

1win3 traders

Total Value$314.19

Total Shares5,234

Combined PnL-$639.77

Team Yandex — 67%1win — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Yandex 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR tripleh0829	Team Yandexavg 93¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$24.66	71% 178-72 (250)
VO Volodyabandit	Team Yandexavg 91.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$17.44	76% 230-74 (304)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998	Team Yandexavg 89¢	$450.2	$465.37	+$12.65	54% 240-201 (441)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	1winavg 12.4¢	$1.1K	$251.74	-$647.91	50% 1024-1044 (2068)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Yandexavg 89.3¢	$100.49	$101.52	+$1.04	55% 862-718 (1580)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Team Yandexavg 90¢	$99.9	$98.79	-$1.11	58% 16134-11777 (27911)
forsenxdCTR<$100	1winavg 8¢	$38.76	$46.02	+$7.27	53% 813-735 (1548)
AR arbmonitorCTR<$100	1winavg 9¢	$15.57	$16.43	+$0.86	45% 474-573 (1047)
HRTrading<$100	Team Yandexavg 90¢	$8.82	$8.77	-$0.05	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

tripleh0829

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,293.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$24.66

Record

71%

178-72 (250)

Volodyabandit

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17.44

Record

76%

230-74 (304)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998

Team Yandex

Invested

$450.2

Value

$465.37

PnL

+$12.65

Record

54%

240-201 (441)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

1win

Invested

$1,127.69

Value

$251.74

PnL

-$647.91

Record

50%

1024-1044 (2068)

TommyLeePeeca

Team Yandex

Invested

$100.49

Value

$101.52

PnL

+$1.04

Record

55%

862-718 (1580)

BillBenter2026<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$99.9

Value

$98.79

PnL

-$1.11

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

forsenxdCTR<$100

1win

Invested

$38.76

Value

$46.02

PnL

+$7.27

Record

53%

813-735 (1548)

arbmonitorCTR<$100

1win

Invested

$15.57

Value

$16.43

PnL

+$0.86

Record

45%

474-573 (1047)

HRTrading<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$8.82

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Yandex at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Yandex 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Yandex 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team Yandex 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.