Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

35 of 62 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (56%) · PARIVISION at 100¢ · $480K held · ended Oct 26

Team Spirit<1¢PARIVISION>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$479.5K

Combined PnL

$36.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

35 of 62 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit0%

PARIVISION100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION35 traders

Total Value$308.6K

Total Shares407,259

Combined PnL+$14.3K

Team Spirit27 traders

Total Value$138.5K

Total Shares309,197

Combined PnL+$21.8K

PARIVISION — 56%Team Spirit — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyWin	PARIVISIONavg 99.9¢	$84.2K	$84.3K	+$64.35	85% 738-130 (868)
MO MooseborzoiiiCTR	Team Spiritavg 39.7¢	$31.0K	$38.2K	+$7.3K	41% 19-27 (46)
YA yadens	PARIVISIONavg 75.6¢	$34.6K	$37.3K	+$5.7K	70% 138-60 (198)
EX Excentrico	PARIVISIONavg 90.4¢	$34.0K	$32.4K	$-1.6K	64% 285-163 (448)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Team Spiritavg 41.6¢	$25.7K	$30.2K	+$4.5K	58% 1835-1316 (3151)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 53.5¢	$23.5K	$24.3K	+$736.24	69% 467-213 (680)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 53.5¢	$12.6K	$14.0K	+$1.4K
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 43.2¢	$11.0K	$10.3K	-$679.87
CyberScore.live	PARIVISIONavg 55.4¢	$16.0K	$20.4K	+$4.4K	46% 391-457 (848)
GE GeorgeRe	PARIVISIONavg 58.9¢	$12.5K	$17.9K	+$5.4K	54% 1059-917 (1976)
cat3xcat3x	PARIVISIONavg 57.1¢	$23.9K	$17.0K	+$6.8K	56% 312-245 (557)
5A 0x5a56...10f5	PARIVISIONavg 63.3¢	$14.7K	$17.0K	+$5.3K	—
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Team Spiritavg 60.5¢	$66.9K	$15.8K	+$5.0K	69% 49-22 (71)
Medo3D	PARIVISIONavg 52.1¢	$17.4K	$15.2K	$-2.2K	38% 148-237 (385)
OR origatoCTR	Team Spiritavg 35.8¢	$5.4K	$7.4K	+$2.0K	49% 19-20 (39)
BL blackmoldCTR	Team Spiritavg 39.5¢	$5.5K	$6.9K	+$1.3K	— 10-7 (17)
Nooserac	PARIVISIONavg 59.4¢	$7.4K	$6.4K	$-1.0K	52% 5625-5180 (10805)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	PARIVISIONavg 40.9¢	$9.3K	$6.2K	$-3.0K	46% 59-70 (129)
RR rrooster	PARIVISIONavg 64.9¢	$7.4K	$5.8K	$-1.6K	63% 1300-778 (2078)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	PARIVISIONavg 44.5¢	$6.9K	$5.7K	$-1.2K	55% 31-25 (56)
ST StakesForFun	PARIVISIONavg 65.6¢	$35.8K	$5.4K	+$2.0K	63% 354-212 (566)
Skritopoolniy	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$9.0K	$5.3K	$-3.7K	51% 579-559 (1138)
BA babyboy9ARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 60.8¢	$7.5K	$5.1K	$-1.4K	55% 332-276 (608)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 60.8¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$364.17
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 67.4¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	$-1.0K
PROBABILITYTRADERCTR	Team Spiritavg 38.6¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.0K	42% 1053-1435 (2488)
enpirugbrptiCTR	Team Spiritavg 34¢	$3.3K	$4.8K	+$1.5K	54% 3490-2949 (6439)
0xheavy888	PARIVISIONavg 66.3¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$141.67	56% 6705-5375 (12080)
LI LinkE5CTR	Team Spiritavg 32.7¢	$3.0K	$4.4K	+$1.5K	48% 680-747 (1427)

LuckyWin

PARIVISION

Invested

$84,245.88

Value

$84.3K

PnL

+$64.35

Record

85%

738-130 (868)

MooseborzoiiiCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$30,983.84

Value

$38.2K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

41%

19-27 (46)

yadens

PARIVISION

Invested

$34,574.57

Value

$37.3K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

70%

138-60 (198)

Excentrico

PARIVISION

Invested

$33,991.29

Value

$32.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

64%

285-163 (448)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$25,650.7

Value

$30.2K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

58%

1835-1316 (3151)

gxxyyARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$23,544.68

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$736.24

Record

69%

467-213 (680)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$12,563.6353.5¢+$1.4K

Team Spirit$10,981.0543.2¢-$679.87

CyberScore.live

PARIVISION

Invested

$16,032.47

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

46%

391-457 (848)

GeorgeRe

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,518.51

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

54%

1059-917 (1976)

cat3xcat3x

PARIVISION

Invested

$23,923.53

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

56%

312-245 (557)

0x5a56...10f5

PARIVISION

Invested

$14,742.2

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

—

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$66,942.01

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

69%

49-22 (71)

Medo3D

PARIVISION

Invested

$17,408.5

Value

$15.2K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

38%

148-237 (385)

origatoCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,377.55

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

blackmoldCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,530

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

—

10-7 (17)

Nooserac

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,425

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

52%

5625-5180 (10805)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

PARIVISION

Invested

$9,255.98

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

46%

59-70 (129)

rrooster

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,436.72

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

63%

1300-778 (2078)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,910.84

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

31-25 (56)

StakesForFun

PARIVISION

Invested

$35,826.05

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

63%

354-212 (566)

Skritopoolniy

PARIVISION

Invested

$9,034.09

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

51%

579-559 (1138)

babyboy9ARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,540.12

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

55%

332-276 (608)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$3,511.7260.8¢-$364.17

PARIVISION$2,905.2367.4¢$-1.0K

PROBABILITYTRADERCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,911.14

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

1053-1435 (2488)

enpirugbrptiCTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,306.16

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

3490-2949 (6439)

0xheavy888

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,698.88

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$141.67

Record

56%

6705-5375 (12080)

LinkE5CTR

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,950.73

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

680-747 (1427)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

35 of 62 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.