Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner

35 of 56 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (63%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $266K held · ends Oct 25

Team Spirit>99¢Astra Invicta<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 63%

Total Value

$266.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 56 top traders (63%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit100%

Astra Invicta0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit35 traders

Total Value$185.6K

Total Shares218,344

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Astra Invicta21 traders

Total Value$80.3K

Total Shares318,689

Combined PnL$-8.7K

Team Spirit — 63%Astra Invicta — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Team Spiritavg 99.9¢	$51.7K	$51.8K	+$25.9	99% 9029-127 (9156)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 75.8¢	$24.3K	$26.3K	+$2.1K	70% 431-189 (620)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 67.6¢	$21.0K	$21.9K	+$908.87	61% 718-462 (1180)
relativesignificanceCTR	Astra Invictaavg 32.9¢	$19.0K	$17.0K	$-2.0K	57% 61-46 (107)
zb8CTR	Astra Invictaavg 28.5¢	$16.0K	$16.5K	+$547.07	54% 585-500 (1085)
CyberScore.liveCTR	Astra Invictaavg 20¢	$10.0K	$14.7K	+$4.8K	45% 333-409 (742)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Astra Invictaavg 33.1¢	$10.2K	$9.1K	$-1.1K	58% 1638-1196 (2834)
0xheavy888	Team Spiritavg 78.5¢	$7.9K	$8.6K	+$794.99	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
YA yadens	Team Spiritavg 81.2¢	$8.6K	$8.1K	-$445.67	70% 130-57 (187)
ST StakesForFun	Team Spiritavg 81.8¢	$27.9K	$8.0K	+$572.52	62% 336-205 (541)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Spiritavg 75.2¢	$5.6K	$6.4K	+$833.48	47% 645-719 (1364)
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 73.5¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$240.16	55% 319-265 (584)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Team Spiritavg 66.9¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$266.56	54% 26-22 (48)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Astra Invictaavg 36¢	$5.7K	$4.7K	$-1.0K	54% 1007-874 (1881)
Q7 q7662504	Team Spiritavg 95¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$289.42	89% 325-40 (365)
Nooserac	Team Spiritavg 66¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$225	52% 5265-4842 (10107)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Team Spiritavg 67¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$168.18	51% 502-487 (989)
PI pipipi150	Team Spiritavg 81.1¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$97.39	64% 1472-838 (2310)
MA madar78	Team Spiritavg 90.7¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	+$179.8	67% 32-16 (48)
EX Excentrico	Team Spiritavg 74.4¢	$8.2K	$2.6K	+$1.3K	64% 277-159 (436)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Spiritavg 93.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$74	59% 462-319 (781)
Tokenn	Team Spiritavg 67.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$8.54	48% 615-676 (1291)
MO momijidanCTR	Astra Invictaavg 31.8¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$202.11	52% 173-162 (335)
NA natorgatorontop	Team Spiritavg 65.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$161.17	61% 249-162 (411)
LL llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlICTR	Astra Invictaavg 33.3¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$295.89	59% 747-529 (1276)

zxc368

Team Spirit

Invested

$51,739.46

Value

$51.8K

PnL

+$25.9

Record

99%

9029-127 (9156)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$24,285.77

Value

$26.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

70%

431-189 (620)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$21,000

Value

$21.9K

PnL

+$908.87

Record

61%

718-462 (1180)

relativesignificanceCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$18,950.34

Value

$17.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

57%

61-46 (107)

zb8CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$15,975.75

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$547.07

Record

54%

585-500 (1085)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$9,998.79

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

45%

333-409 (742)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$10,180.99

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

1638-1196 (2834)

0xheavy888

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,854.6

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$794.99

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

yadens

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,562.51

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$445.67

Record

70%

130-57 (187)

StakesForFun

Team Spirit

Invested

$27,890.33

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$572.52

Record

62%

336-205 (541)

RandomVibecoder

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,563.04

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$833.48

Record

47%

645-719 (1364)

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,001.99

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$240.16

Record

55%

319-265 (584)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,956.39

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$266.56

Record

54%

26-22 (48)

GeorgeReCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,749.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

1007-874 (1881)

q7662504

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,582.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$289.42

Record

89%

325-40 (365)

Nooserac

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$225

Record

52%

5265-4842 (10107)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,178.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$168.18

Record

51%

502-487 (989)

pipipi150

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,138.97

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$97.39

Record

64%

1472-838 (2310)

madar78

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,618.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$179.8

Record

67%

32-16 (48)

Excentrico

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,221.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

64%

277-159 (436)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,518

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$74

Record

59%

462-319 (781)

Tokenn

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,580.36

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$8.54

Record

48%

615-676 (1291)

momijidanCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,748.39

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$202.11

Record

52%

173-162 (335)

natorgatorontop

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,316.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$161.17

Record

61%

249-162 (411)

llllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlIllllllIIIIIIlICTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$2,586.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$295.89

Record

59%

747-529 (1276)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 56 top traders (63%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.