Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (38%) · Team Spirit at 91¢ · $38K held · ends Oct 25

Team Spirit91¢Astra Invicta9¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 38%

Total Value

$37.8K

Combined PnL

$415.07

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 90.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit91%

Astra Invicta10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit5 traders

Total Value$28.7K

Total Shares35,693

Combined PnL-$689.08

Astra Invicta8 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares46,368

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Team Spirit — 38%Astra Invicta — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OA oafloaf	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$13.3K	$12.7K	-$554.25	70% 133-57 (190)
TR TrippleEX	Team Spiritavg 79¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$150.05	57% 268-199 (467)
MA madkkee	Team Spiritavg 84¢	$6.5K	$6.3K	-$272.19	66% 904-469 (1373)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Astra Invictaavg 16.1¢	$4.3K	$5.2K	+$918.04	49% 1027-1049 (2076)
VO Volodyabandit	Team Spiritavg 81.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$11.29	76% 232-75 (307)
TG tghj20CTR	Astra Invictaavg 19.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$1.45	61% 34-22 (56)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Astra Invictaavg 21¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$82.75	52% 219-200 (419)
CORGIICTR	Astra Invictaavg 15¢	$570.26	$741.34	+$171.08	42% 371-515 (886)
SP sportteryqqCTR	Astra Invictaavg 16.6¢	$380	$445.73	+$65.73	40% 386-588 (974)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Astra Invictaavg 16.2¢	$217.64	$261.5	+$43.85	47% 779-895 (1674)
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Spiritavg 81.1¢	$187.31	$185.92	-$1.39	59% 13939-9669 (23608)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Astra Invictaavg 22¢	$79.9	$70.92	-$8.99	65% 1538-823 (2361)
AR arbmonitorCTR<$100	Astra Invictaavg 12¢	$16.43	$15.06	-$1.37	45% 476-573 (1049)

oafloaf

Team Spirit

Invested

$13,302.02

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$554.25

Record

70%

133-57 (190)

TrippleEX

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,899.95

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$150.05

Record

57%

268-199 (467)

madkkee

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,532.68

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$272.19

Record

66%

904-469 (1373)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$4,315.4

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$918.04

Record

49%

1027-1049 (2076)

Volodyabandit

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$11.29

Record

76%

232-75 (307)

tghj20CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$1.45

Record

61%

34-22 (56)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,146.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$82.75

Record

52%

219-200 (419)

CORGIICTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$570.26

Value

$741.34

PnL

+$171.08

Record

42%

371-515 (886)

sportteryqqCTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$380

Value

$445.73

PnL

+$65.73

Record

40%

386-588 (974)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Astra Invicta

Invested

$217.64

Value

$261.5

PnL

+$43.85

Record

47%

779-895 (1674)

omnibus-076daa

Team Spirit

Invested

$187.31

Value

$185.92

PnL

-$1.39

Record

59%

13939-9669 (23608)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$79.9

Value

$70.92

PnL

-$8.99

Record

65%

1538-823 (2361)

arbmonitorCTR<$100

Astra Invicta

Invested

$16.43

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$1.37

Record

45%

476-573 (1049)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.