Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (71%) · PARIVISION at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25

PARIVISION87¢BetBoom Team13¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 71%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$245.55

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 86.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION87%

BetBoom Team14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,665

Combined PnL-$245.2

BetBoom Team2 traders

Total Value$21.91

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$0.35

PARIVISION — 71%BetBoom Team — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184	PARIVISIONavg 73¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$148.28	54% 120-102 (222)
KO korandnik	PARIVISIONavg 73.8¢	$1.1K	$982.5	-$124.4	91% 75-7 (82)
WE wewbo	PARIVISIONavg 70.7¢	$806.97	$816.09	+$9.12	51% 123-116 (239)
PO pol2131	PARIVISIONavg 69¢	$689.99	$709.99	+$20	45% 339-422 (761)
forsenxd<$100	PARIVISIONavg 69¢	$32.47	$30.82	-$1.65	53% 867-768 (1635)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 35¢	$21.57	$21.26	-$0.31	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 31¢	$0.69	$0.65	-$0.04	53% 2392-2133 (4525)

0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,443.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$148.28

Record

54%

120-102 (222)

korandnik

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,106.9

Value

$982.5

PnL

-$124.4

Record

91%

75-7 (82)

wewbo

PARIVISION

Invested

$806.97

Value

$816.09

PnL

+$9.12

Record

51%

123-116 (239)

pol2131

PARIVISION

Invested

$689.99

Value

$709.99

PnL

+$20

Record

45%

339-422 (761)

forsenxd<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$32.47

Value

$30.82

PnL

-$1.65

Record

53%

867-768 (1635)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$21.57

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$0.31

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

2392-2133 (4525)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.