Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

32 of 63 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (51%) · GamerLegion at 94¢ · $343K held · ends Oct 26

OG7¢GamerLegion93¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 51%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$343.1K

Combined PnL

$18.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 93.5¢

+81% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

32 of 63 top traders (51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

OG7%

GamerLegion94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion32 traders

Total Value$225.5K

Total Shares345,398

Combined PnL+$30.9K

OG31 traders

Total Value$95.6K

Total Shares215,506

Combined PnL$-12.9K

GamerLegion — 51%OG — 49%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616	GamerLegionavg 48.8¢	$12.3K	$21.4K	+$9.1K	50% 1091-1097 (2188)
PA para-VisionCTR	OGavg 54.3¢	$18.8K	$18.5K	-$265.45	57% 189-145 (334)
Sunshine.Smile	GamerLegionavg 40.3¢	$36.0K	$18.4K	+$2.7K	58% 1796-1291 (3087)
Q7 q7662504	GamerLegionavg 93.7¢	$18.0K	$17.9K	-$35.04	89% 330-42 (372)
YA yadens	GamerLegionavg 57.1¢	$11.1K	$16.6K	+$6.5K	69% 134-60 (194)
Medo3D	GamerLegionavg 44.9¢	$11.4K	$16.5K	+$5.1K	38% 145-235 (380)
QW qwerqr1251251	GamerLegionavg 62.3¢	$14.4K	$15.6K	+$1.9K	70% 284-124 (408)
LI LinkE5CTR	OGavg 58.5¢	$16.4K	$15.0K	$-1.4K	50% 652-643 (1295)
RA RandomVibecoder	GamerLegionavg 56.7¢	$12.7K	$14.3K	+$1.6K	48% 717-771 (1488)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	GamerLegionavg 45¢	$13.3K	$13.7K	+$454.94	57% 819-609 (1428)
CyberScore.live	GamerLegionavg 45.6¢	$10.9K	$11.1K	+$219.44	46% 370-437 (807)
cat3xcat3x	GamerLegionavg 62.4¢	$21.8K	$10.5K	-$354.37	56% 308-243 (551)
SI Sisyphus-	GamerLegionavg 46¢	$10.3K	$10.4K	+$111.7	56% 635-493 (1128)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	GamerLegionavg 64.1¢	$22.9K	$10.0K	+$3.2K	68% 45-21 (66)
OR origatoCTR	OGavg 42.7¢	$15.3K	$9.0K	$-5.6K	81% 17-4 (21)
GE GeorgeReCTR	OGavg 54.5¢	$9.1K	$9.0K	-$160.69	54% 1046-903 (1949)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	GamerLegionavg 43.1¢	$7.8K	$8.4K	+$610	45% 56-69 (125)
dodsterbotARB<$100	OGavg 57.9¢	$9.4K	$7.8K	-$191.79	48% 596-651 (1247)
└ OG leg	OGavg 57.9¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$459.71
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 43.1¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$267.92
0xheavy888ARB<$100	OGavg 42.9¢	$8.4K	$6.7K	$-1.7K	56% 6645-5318 (11963)
└ OG leg	OGavg 42.9¢	$5.7K	$3.9K	$-1.9K
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 67¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$160
GX gxxyyCTR	OGavg 36.1¢	$9.3K	$6.5K	$-2.8K	69% 454-204 (658)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	OGavg 53.3¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$25.66	56% 29-23 (52)
EX ExcentricoARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 72.6¢	$7.2K	$5.5K	$-1.6K	64% 281-161 (442)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 72.6¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$272.5
└ OG leg	OGavg 55.5¢	$3.2K	$1.3K	$-1.9K
Skritopoolniy	GamerLegionavg 43.9¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$294.61	51% 566-550 (1116)
LU luckycat888888	GamerLegionavg 44.7¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$193.87	— 8-9 (17)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	-$803.14	50% 529-525 (1054)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616

GamerLegion

Invested

$12,307.05

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

50%

1091-1097 (2188)

para-VisionCTR

Invested

$18,786.12

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$265.45

Record

57%

189-145 (334)

Sunshine.Smile

GamerLegion

Invested

$35,962.74

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

58%

1796-1291 (3087)

q7662504

GamerLegion

Invested

$17,952.68

Value

$17.9K

PnL

-$35.04

Record

89%

330-42 (372)

yadens

GamerLegion

Invested

$11,147.48

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

Medo3D

GamerLegion

Invested

$11,370.34

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

38%

145-235 (380)

qwerqr1251251

GamerLegion

Invested

$14,411.09

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

70%

284-124 (408)

LinkE5CTR

Invested

$16,383.34

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

652-643 (1295)

RandomVibecoder

GamerLegion

Invested

$12,742.07

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

717-771 (1488)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

GamerLegion

Invested

$13,271.3

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$454.94

Record

57%

819-609 (1428)

CyberScore.live

GamerLegion

Invested

$10,888.49

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$219.44

Record

46%

370-437 (807)

cat3xcat3x

GamerLegion

Invested

$21,799.85

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$354.37

Record

56%

308-243 (551)

Sisyphus-

GamerLegion

Invested

$10,276

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$111.7

Record

56%

635-493 (1128)

UNIVERSEMVP

GamerLegion

Invested

$22,927.75

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

68%

45-21 (66)

origatoCTR

Invested

$15,257.1

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

81%

17-4 (21)

GeorgeReCTR

Invested

$9,112.63

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$160.69

Record

54%

1046-903 (1949)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

GamerLegion

Invested

$7,759.99

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$610

Record

45%

56-69 (125)

dodsterbotARB<$100

Invested

$9,383.34

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$191.79

Record

48%

596-651 (1247)

Both legs:

OG$4,643.7157.9¢-$459.71

GamerLegion$3,263.5743.1¢+$267.92

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$8,429.56

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

56%

6645-5318 (11963)

Both legs:

OG$5,749.5642.9¢$-1.9K

GamerLegion$2,68067¢+$160

gxxyyCTR

Invested

$9,320.63

Value

$6.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

69%

454-204 (658)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Invested

$5,994.81

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$25.66

Record

56%

29-23 (52)

ExcentricoARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$7,151.14

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

64%

281-161 (442)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$4,00072.6¢+$272.5

OG$3,151.1455.5¢$-1.9K

Skritopoolniy

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,008

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$294.61

Record

51%

566-550 (1116)

luckycat888888

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,900.13

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$193.87

Record

—

8-9 (17)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,196.8

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$803.14

Record

50%

529-525 (1054)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

32 of 63 top traders (51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.