Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

35 of 68 top Polymarket traders hold OG (51%) · OG at 100¢ · $286K held · ends Oct 26

OG>99¢GamerLegion<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 51%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$285.6K

Combined PnL

$12.6K

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 68 top traders (51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

OG100%

GamerLegion0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG35 traders

Total Value$171.9K

Total Shares236,271

Combined PnL+$35.2K

GamerLegion33 traders

Total Value$104.4K

Total Shares275,302

Combined PnL$-22.6K

OG — 51%GamerLegion — 49%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE depresssin	OGavg 99.9¢	$31.5K	$31.6K	+$15.79	85% 1236-225 (1461)
LU LuckyWin	OGavg 99.9¢	$23.7K	$23.8K	+$11.89	85% 712-126 (838)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	GamerLegionavg 47.2¢	$18.0K	$18.5K	+$492.62	57% 819-609 (1428)
GE GeorgeRe	OGavg 50.6¢	$13.3K	$17.5K	+$11.8K	54% 1046-903 (1949)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	GamerLegionavg 46.4¢	$15.6K	$16.3K	+$708.29	58% 1796-1291 (3087)
YA yadens	OGavg 28.4¢	$6.1K	$15.8K	+$10.4K	69% 134-60 (194)
PA para-VisionCTR	GamerLegionavg 50.1¢	$12.9K	$13.2K	+$354.75	57% 189-145 (334)
CORGIICTR	GamerLegionavg 51.8¢	$9.5K	$9.4K	-$63.31	41% 373-526 (899)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	GamerLegionavg 53.7¢	$9.6K	$9.4K	-$214.45	56% 635-493 (1128)
CO CoffeemaniaBets	OGavg 52.9¢	$5.1K	$9.0K	+$3.9K	47% 25-28 (53)
QW qwerqr1251251	OGavg 86.9¢	$13.2K	$8.7K	$-3.7K	70% 284-124 (408)
CyberScore.live	OGavg 36.7¢	$10.0K	$8.0K	$-2.0K	46% 370-437 (807)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	GamerLegionavg 60.1¢	$21.2K	$7.2K	+$3.7K	68% 45-21 (66)
Tokenn	OGavg 47.1¢	$6.0K	$6.6K	+$674.5	48% 636-691 (1327)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	OGavg 53¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$58.69	50% 529-525 (1054)
0xheavy888	OGavg 38¢	$3.6K	$6.0K	+$2.4K	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
EX Excentrico	OGavg 60.1¢	$8.9K	$5.6K	+$154.29	64% 281-161 (442)
PI pipipi150	OGavg 72.8¢	$5.5K	$5.2K	-$302.01	65% 1613-885 (2498)
FE fengshengshuiqi88CTR	GamerLegionavg 82.3¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$131.73	70% 327-137 (464)
LU luckycat888888CTR	GamerLegionavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$52.93	— 8-9 (17)
dodsterbotARB<$100	OGavg 49.4¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$196.64	48% 596-651 (1247)
└ OG leg	OGavg 49.4¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$65.86
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 41¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$262.5
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	GamerLegionavg 47.5¢	$4.2K	$4.8K	+$621.49	54% 2409-2079 (4488)
FA facaigegeCTR	GamerLegionavg 69.3¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$534.75	49% 363-381 (744)
KA KaguyaNg	OGavg 57.4¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	-$382.37	48% 321-345 (666)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	OGavg 38.9¢	$7.7K	$3.8K	$-3.8K	45% 56-69 (125)

depresssin

Invested

$31,546.42

Value

$31.6K

PnL

+$15.79

Record

85%

1236-225 (1461)

LuckyWin

Invested

$23,747.71

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$11.89

Record

85%

712-126 (838)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$18,000

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$492.62

Record

57%

819-609 (1428)

GeorgeRe

Invested

$13,333.55

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$11.8K

Record

54%

1046-903 (1949)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$15,619.55

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$708.29

Record

58%

1796-1291 (3087)

yadens

Invested

$6,077.03

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

para-VisionCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$12,869.51

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$354.75

Record

57%

189-145 (334)

CORGIICTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$9,492.4

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$63.31

Record

41%

373-526 (899)

Sisyphus-CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$9,575

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$214.45

Record

56%

635-493 (1128)

CoffeemaniaBets

Invested

$5,073.03

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

47%

25-28 (53)

qwerqr1251251

Invested

$13,216.16

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

70%

284-124 (408)

CyberScore.live

Invested

$9,999.96

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

46%

370-437 (807)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$21,235.46

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

68%

45-21 (66)

Tokenn

Invested

$5,963.05

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$674.5

Record

48%

636-691 (1327)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Invested

$6,220.97

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$58.69

Record

50%

529-525 (1054)

0xheavy888

Invested

$3,622.67

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

Excentrico

Invested

$8,905.4

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$154.29

Record

64%

281-161 (442)

pipipi150

Invested

$5,521.46

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$302.01

Record

65%

1613-885 (2498)

fengshengshuiqi88CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,949.1

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$131.73

Record

70%

327-137 (464)

luckycat888888CTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,032.95

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$52.93

Record

—

8-9 (17)

dodsterbotARB<$100

Invested

$4,779.07

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$196.64

Record

48%

596-651 (1247)

Both legs:

OG$3,726.9249.4¢-$65.86

GamerLegion$1,02541¢+$262.5

THEHIGHLIFECTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,187.05

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$621.49

Record

54%

2409-2079 (4488)

facaigegeCTR

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,897.37

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$534.75

Record

49%

363-381 (744)

KaguyaNg

Invested

$4,504.7

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$382.37

Record

48%

321-345 (666)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Invested

$7,661.4

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

45%

56-69 (125)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 68 top traders (51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.