Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold GamerLegion, while the market favors OG (53%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (25%) · GamerLegion at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26
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Neutral
GamerLegion
4
GamerLegion 25%
$7.7K
$421.97
Research grade
NeutralGamerLegion at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors OG 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGIICTR | GamerLegionavg 41.8¢ | $5.2K | $5.6K | +$453.17 | 42% 373-523 (896) |
TR TrippleEX | OGavg 54¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$34.1 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
VO Volodyabandit | OGavg 59¢ | $150 | $137.29 | -$1.27 | 76% 239-76 (315) |
AR arbmonitor<$100 | OGavg 51.2¢ | $75.94 | $80.11 | +$4.17 | 46% 494-582 (1076) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.