Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No Hoodwink (100%) · No Hoodwink at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No Hoodwink
2
No Hoodwink 100%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
$3.7K
49¢ → 54¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo Hoodwink at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100 | Zero Tenacityavg 50.7¢ | $2.3K | $3.7K | -$643.32 | 48% 745-795 (1540) |
| └ Zero Tenacity leg | Zero Tenacityavg 50.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | $-2.2K | |
| └ No Hoodwink leg | No Hoodwinkavg 46.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$1.6K | |
BA Barbozaaa321 | No Hoodwinkavg 49¢ | $182.93 | $3.2K | +$3.1K | 51% 324-312 (636) |
 Up0nly | No Hoodwinkavg 49¢ | $36.6 | $647.99 | +$611.39 | 68% 945-445 (1390) |
Invested
$2,259.94
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$643.32
Record
48%
745-795 (1540)
Both legs:
Invested
$182.93
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$3.1K
Record
51%
324-312 (636)
Up0nlyInvested
$36.6
Value
$647.99
PnL
+$611.39
Record
68%
945-445 (1390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.