Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (33%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 25

Nemiga Gaming>99¢Inner Circle<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$629.46

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga Gaming100%

Inner Circle0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming5 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares15,836

Combined PnL+$536.08

Inner Circle10 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares24,386

Combined PnL+$93.38

Nemiga Gaming — 33%Inner Circle — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	+$4.69	99% 9010-127 (9137)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Inner Circleavg 68.1¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$256.76	47% 643-719 (1362)
PROBABILITYTRADERCTR	Inner Circleavg 39¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	-$663.72	42% 1008-1368 (2376)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Inner Circleavg 24¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.1K	49% 1026-1047 (2073)
CyberScore.live	Nemiga Gamingavg 27.7¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$415.17	45% 333-408 (741)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 38.1¢	$3.5K	$580.15	-$434.42	54% 1127-959 (2086)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 48.8¢	$200.41	$380.04	+$289.86
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 38.1¢	$1.0K	$200.11	-$724.29
1R 1rerrrCTR	Inner Circleavg 55¢	$434.52	$473.27	+$64.6	59% 1106-754 (1860)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Inner Circleavg 61.9¢	$322.11	$330.45	+$8.34	59% 13928-9661 (23589)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Inner Circleavg 71¢	$354.99	$317.49	-$37.5	63% 22592-13331 (35923)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	Nemiga Gamingavg 29¢	$249.4	$313.9	+$64.5	59% 244-173 (417)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Inner Circleavg 65¢	$274.99	$268.64	-$6.35	55% 262-218 (480)
BA Barbozaaa321	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$164.9	$265.49	+$100.59	50% 304-301 (605)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Nemiga Gamingavg 42.2¢	$1.6K	$197.15	-$48.88	61% 542-341 (883)
PA pauleta23CTR	Inner Circleavg 69.5¢	$217.49	$145.7	-$71.79	71% 17634-7151 (24785)
JO JocJoCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 71¢	$31.54	$28.21	-$3.33	51% 895-862 (1757)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 20¢	$14.6	$12.41	-$2.19	46% 356-423 (779)

zxc368

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$9,375.76

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.69

Record

99%

9010-127 (9137)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$4,912.12

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$256.76

Record

47%

643-719 (1362)

PROBABILITYTRADERCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,460.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$663.72

Record

42%

1008-1368 (2376)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,592.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

1026-1047 (2073)

CyberScore.live

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,308

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$415.17

Record

45%

333-408 (741)

calculate10ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,528.51

Value

$580.15

PnL

-$434.42

Record

54%

1127-959 (2086)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$200.4148.8¢+$289.86

Inner Circle$1,017.5938.1¢-$724.29

1rerrrCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$434.52

Value

$473.27

PnL

+$64.6

Record

59%

1106-754 (1860)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$322.11

Value

$330.45

PnL

+$8.34

Record

59%

13928-9661 (23589)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$354.99

Value

$317.49

PnL

-$37.5

Record

63%

22592-13331 (35923)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$249.4

Value

$313.9

PnL

+$64.5

Record

59%

244-173 (417)

r2d2v2CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$274.99

Value

$268.64

PnL

-$6.35

Record

55%

262-218 (480)

Barbozaaa321

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$164.9

Value

$265.49

PnL

+$100.59

Record

50%

304-301 (605)

BackTestEoCaraio

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,636.33

Value

$197.15

PnL

-$48.88

Record

61%

542-341 (883)

pauleta23CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$217.49

Value

$145.7

PnL

-$71.79

Record

71%

17634-7151 (24785)

JocJoCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$31.54

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$3.33

Record

51%

895-862 (1757)

ccllarCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$14.6

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$2.19

Record

46%

356-423 (779)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.