Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (70%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 25

Nemiga Gaming>99¢Inner Circle<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 100¢

+60% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga Gaming100%

Inner Circle0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming7 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares13,884

Combined PnL+$839.25

Inner Circle3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares12,962

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Nemiga Gaming — 70%Inner Circle — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$2.91	99% 9010-127 (9137)
PROBABILITYTRADERCTR	Inner Circleavg 48.8¢	$3.4K	$4.5K	+$1.0K	42% 1008-1367 (2375)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Inner Circleavg 61.6¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$99.15	47% 643-717 (1360)
CyberScore.live	Nemiga Gamingavg 20.1¢	$886.26	$1.6K	+$723.32	45% 333-406 (739)
PA pauleta23	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.4¢	$715.27	$1.0K	+$297.55	71% 17592-7139 (24731)
BA Barbozaaa321	Nemiga Gamingavg 54¢	$843.27	$569.99	-$273.28	50% 304-300 (604)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 62.6¢	$1.9K	$500.48	-$492.25	54% 1127-959 (2086)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 62.6¢	$1.0K	$355.81	-$781.33
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 21.2¢	$39.09	$144.67	+$289.08
LU ludka-minutkaCTR	Inner Circleavg 39.3¢	$301.37	$486.45	+$185.08	48% 388-419 (807)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nemiga Gamingavg 34.6¢	$267.1	$282.06	+$14.96	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Nemiga Gamingavg 60.5¢	$1.3K	$229.16	+$68.91	61% 542-341 (883)
BE berlinskies<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 68.6¢	$33.62	$38.49	+$4.87	57% 4829-3602 (8431)

zxc368

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$5,814.39

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.91

Record

99%

9010-127 (9137)

PROBABILITYTRADERCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,422.52

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

1008-1367 (2375)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,193.81

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$99.15

Record

47%

643-717 (1360)

CyberScore.live

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$886.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$723.32

Record

45%

333-406 (739)

pauleta23

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$715.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$297.55

Record

71%

17592-7139 (24731)

Barbozaaa321

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$843.27

Value

$569.99

PnL

-$273.28

Record

50%

304-300 (604)

calculate10ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,897.91

Value

$500.48

PnL

-$492.25

Record

54%

1127-959 (2086)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$1,035.4862.6¢-$781.33

Nemiga Gaming$39.0921.2¢+$289.08

ludka-minutkaCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$301.37

Value

$486.45

PnL

+$185.08

Record

48%

388-419 (807)

omnibus-076daa

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$267.1

Value

$282.06

PnL

+$14.96

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

BackTestEoCaraio

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,285.04

Value

$229.16

PnL

+$68.91

Record

61%

542-341 (883)

berlinskies<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$33.62

Value

$38.49

PnL

+$4.87

Record

57%

4829-3602 (8431)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.