Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Nemiga Gaming
1
Nemiga Gaming 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$564.54
Research grade
NeutralNemiga Gaming at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $1.6K | -$564.54 | 99% 9029-127 (9156) |
CA calculate10ARB<$100 | Nemiga Gamingavg 78.6¢ | $387.81 | $257.27 | +$73.35 | 54% 1127-960 (2087) |
| └ Nemiga Gaming leg | Nemiga Gamingavg 78.6¢ | $151.21 | $192.26 | +$49.59 | |
| └ Inner Circle leg | Inner Circleavg 16.5¢ | $41.26 | $65.01 | +$23.75 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.