Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold OG, while the market favors Team Liquid (100%). 10 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 Winner

10 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold OG (37%) · OG at 0.1¢ · $113K held · ends Oct 25

Team Liquid>99¢OG<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

OG 37%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$113.1K

Combined PnL

$9.4K

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOG at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 27 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Team Liquid 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid100%

OG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG10 traders

Total Value$77.8K

Total Shares178,792

Combined PnL+$16.6K

Team Liquid17 traders

Total Value$33.4K

Total Shares56,827

Combined PnL$-7.2K

OG — 37%Team Liquid — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOG 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 69% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
relativesignificanceCTR	OGavg 44.9¢	$22.4K	$22.7K	+$299.91	57% 56-43 (99)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	OGavg 44.4¢	$12.6K	$12.9K	+$302.41	58% 1633-1189 (2822)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	OGavg 33.3¢	$8.6K	$10.9K	+$2.3K	45% 54-65 (119)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	OGavg 21.9¢	$6.1K	$9.7K	+$5.7K	49% 1020-1042 (2062)
MA madar78CTR	OGavg 37.3¢	$9.6K	$7.6K	+$783.39	68% 30-14 (44)
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 86.4¢	$9.0K	$6.0K	$-2.9K	69% 128-57 (185)
CyberScore.liveCTR	OGavg 7¢	$1,000	$6.0K	+$5.0K	45% 331-406 (737)
Q7 q7662504	Team Liquidavg 93.8¢	$8.5K	$5.2K	$-3.2K	89% 315-40 (355)
eblomixerCTR	OGavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	57% 451-343 (794)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Team Liquidavg 55.5¢	$7.1K	$3.7K	+$2.8K	53% 24-21 (45)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 57.6¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$75.24	61% 715-460 (1175)
ST StakesForFun	Team Liquidavg 85.3¢	$9.8K	$3.1K	$-1.5K	62% 334-205 (539)
PI pipipi150	Team Liquidavg 74.3¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$540.84	64% 1448-824 (2272)
KA KaguyaNgCTR	OGavg 41¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$52.83	48% 308-332 (640)
NO nomoredream	Team Liquidavg 71.2¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$412.99	61% 285-183 (468)
BE BettongCTR	OGavg 7.9¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$2.2K	56% 316-251 (567)
JA Jameslyy	Team Liquidavg 87.8¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$745.95	66% 661-335 (996)
Tokenn	Team Liquidavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.5	48% 612-672 (1284)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 58¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$48.4	59% 13833-9606 (23439)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 58¢	$875.22	$875.22	+$0
└ OG leg	OGavg 33.3¢	$184.9	$233.3	+$48.4
TR tripleh0829	Team Liquidavg 59¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	71% 178-71 (249)
BA babyboy9	Team Liquidavg 59¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	54% 316-264 (580)
FE fengshengshuiqi88	Team Liquidavg 93.7¢	$1.5K	$908.84	-$559.19	71% 313-128 (441)
iceblue-	Team Liquidavg 57.8¢	$883.4	$901.6	+$18.2	43% 665-887 (1552)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 90.1¢	$818.23	$645.34	-$172.9	71% 17512-7103 (24615)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 90.1¢	$718.56	$462.59	-$255.97
└ OG leg	OGavg 22.9¢	$99.67	$182.74	+$83.07
CA Catch8877	Team Liquidavg 58¢	$575.4	$585.32	+$9.92	49% 127-134 (261)

relativesignificanceCTR

Invested

$22,401.77

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$299.91

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Invested

$12,574.08

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$302.41

Record

58%

1633-1189 (2822)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Invested

$8,649.98

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

45%

54-65 (119)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Invested

$6,119.44

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

49%

1020-1042 (2062)

madar78CTR

Invested

$9,575.76

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$783.39

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,961.74

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

69%

128-57 (185)

CyberScore.liveCTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

45%

331-406 (737)

q7662504

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,476.72

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

89%

315-40 (355)

eblomixerCTR

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

451-343 (794)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,060.31

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

53%

24-21 (45)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$75.24

Record

61%

715-460 (1175)

StakesForFun

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,772.08

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

62%

334-205 (539)

pipipi150

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,179.8

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$540.84

Record

64%

1448-824 (2272)

KaguyaNgCTR

Invested

$2,165.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$52.83

Record

48%

308-332 (640)

nomoredream

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,221.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$412.99

Record

61%

285-183 (468)

BettongCTR

Invested

$2,083.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

56%

316-251 (567)

Jameslyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,195.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$745.95

Record

66%

661-335 (996)

Tokenn

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,375

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

48%

612-672 (1284)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,060.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.4

Record

59%

13833-9606 (23439)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$875.2258¢+$0

OG$184.933.3¢+$48.4

tripleh0829

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

178-71 (249)

babyboy9

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

316-264 (580)

fengshengshuiqi88

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,468.03

Value

$908.84

PnL

-$559.19

Record

71%

313-128 (441)

iceblue-

Team Liquid

Invested

$883.4

Value

$901.6

PnL

+$18.2

Record

43%

665-887 (1552)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$818.23

Value

$645.34

PnL

-$172.9

Record

71%

17512-7103 (24615)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$718.5690.1¢-$255.97

OG$99.6722.9¢+$83.07

Catch8877

Team Liquid

Invested

$575.4

Value

$585.32

PnL

+$9.92

Record

49%

127-134 (261)

Research grade

AvoidOG at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 27 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Team Liquid 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOG 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Team Liquid 69% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.