Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (50%) · Team Liquid at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25

Team Liquid56¢OG44¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$8

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid56%

OG45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,246

Combined PnL-$21.19

OG3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,327

Combined PnL+$13.2

Team Liquid — 50%OG — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.18	61% 715-460 (1175)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Liquidavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$30.48	67% 37-18 (55)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	OGavg 45¢	$597.25	$603.88	+$6.64	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
MA MaktManCTR	OGavg 45¢	$393.47	$397.53	+$4.06	63% 17-10 (27)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	OGavg 45¢	$225	$227.5	+$2.5	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Team Liquidavg 56¢	$99.68	$98.79	-$0.89	58% 16089-11745 (27834)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,119.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.18

Record

61%

715-460 (1175)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,138.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$30.48

Record

67%

37-18 (55)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$597.25

Value

$603.88

PnL

+$6.64

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

MaktManCTR

Invested

$393.47

Value

$397.53

PnL

+$4.06

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$225

Value

$227.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

BillBenter2026<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$99.68

Value

$98.79

PnL

-$0.89

Record

58%

16089-11745 (27834)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.