Dota 2: CyberHero vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

14 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (58%) · CyberHero at 100¢ · $36K held · ends Oct 25

CyberHero>99¢Zero Tenacity<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 100¢

+72% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

14 of 24 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero100%

Zero Tenacity0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero14 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares29,172

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Zero Tenacity10 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares30,750

Combined PnL$-6.2K

CyberHero — 58%Zero Tenacity — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	CyberHeroavg 51.3¢	$7.9K	$8.7K	+$838.05	47% 645-721 (1366)
YA yadens	CyberHeroavg 68.6¢	$4.1K	$3.8K	-$335.83	70% 130-57 (187)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 41¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$134.54	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 52.6¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$484.83
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 41¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$350.29
PROBABILITYTRADERCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 39.8¢	$6.7K	$2.5K	$-4.2K	42% 1009-1377 (2386)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	CyberHeroavg 66¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$18.94	51% 304-294 (598)
Medo3DCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 53.9¢	$3.5K	$2.1K	$-1.3K	38% 143-231 (374)
PA panpidaras1	CyberHeroavg 42.5¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$468.13	54% 154-130 (284)
LU ludka-minutka	CyberHeroavg 51.2¢	$824.61	$1.6K	+$784.19	48% 388-423 (811)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 43.1¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$324.75	53% 2392-2133 (4525)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 43.1¢	$691.13	$1.1K	+$382.37
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 36.7¢	$569.81	$512.19	-$57.61
CA calculate10ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 58¢	$5.2K	$1.4K	+$455.53	54% 1130-964 (2094)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 58¢	$822.05	$1.1K	+$482.2
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 42.7¢	$618.19	$361.9	-$26.67
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	CyberHeroavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$70.96	67% 487-237 (724)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	CyberHeroavg 65.2¢	$7.4K	$1.0K	+$1.4K	66% 40-21 (61)
ST StakesForFun	CyberHeroavg 66.6¢	$4.9K	$935.41	-$365.2	62% 337-205 (542)
MA madar78CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 26¢	$1.4K	$849.19	-$504.71	67% 32-16 (48)
teardropsaidmynameCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 31.9¢	$862.65	$742.5	-$120.15	52% 401-371 (772)
PO pol2131	CyberHeroavg 47¢	$234.99	$334.99	+$100	45% 339-422 (761)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	CyberHeroavg 72¢	$845.28	$280.99	-$90.68	62% 551-344 (895)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	CyberHeroavg 39.2¢	$125.17	$203.47	+$78.31	63% 22715-13447 (36162)
1R 1rerrrCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 28¢	$417.79	$172.34	+$26.11	59% 1108-756 (1864)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 28¢	$112	$132	+$20	59% 245-173 (418)
CC ccllarCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 42.4¢	$168.56	$131.21	-$37.35	46% 358-425 (783)
PA pauleta23<$100	CyberHeroavg 65¢	$76.46	$63.81	-$12.65	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 49.8¢	$50	$62.75	+$12.75	57% 4941-3668 (8609)
JO JocJo<$100	CyberHeroavg 47¢	$22.23	$31.69	+$9.46	51% 896-863 (1759)
VeryLucky888<$100	CyberHeroavg 64¢	$14.67	$15.35	+$0.69	58% 31904-23124 (55028)

RandomVibecoder

CyberHero

Invested

$7,871.4

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$838.05

Record

47%

645-721 (1366)

yadens

CyberHero

Invested

$4,128.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$335.83

Record

70%

130-57 (187)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,573.51

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$134.54

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

Both legs:

CyberHero$1,777.7352.6¢+$484.83

Zero Tenacity$1,795.7841¢-$350.29

PROBABILITYTRADERCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$6,726.05

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

42%

1009-1377 (2386)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

CyberHero

Invested

$2,499.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$18.94

Record

51%

304-294 (598)

Medo3DCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,456.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

38%

143-231 (374)

panpidaras1

CyberHero

Invested

$1,326.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$468.13

Record

54%

154-130 (284)

ludka-minutka

CyberHero

Invested

$824.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$784.19

Record

48%

388-423 (811)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$1,260.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$324.75

Record

53%

2392-2133 (4525)

Both legs:

CyberHero$691.1343.1¢+$382.37

Zero Tenacity$569.8136.7¢-$57.61

calculate10ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$5,167.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$455.53

Record

54%

1130-964 (2094)

Both legs:

CyberHero$822.0558¢+$482.2

Zero Tenacity$618.1942.7¢-$26.67

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

CyberHero

Invested

$1,697.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$70.96

Record

67%

487-237 (724)

UNIVERSEMVP

CyberHero

Invested

$7,406.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

66%

40-21 (61)

StakesForFun

CyberHero

Invested

$4,851.51

Value

$935.41

PnL

-$365.2

Record

62%

337-205 (542)

madar78CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,353.9

Value

$849.19

PnL

-$504.71

Record

67%

32-16 (48)

teardropsaidmynameCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$862.65

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$120.15

Record

52%

401-371 (772)

pol2131

CyberHero

Invested

$234.99

Value

$334.99

PnL

+$100

Record

45%

339-422 (761)

BackTestEoCaraio

CyberHero

Invested

$845.28

Value

$280.99

PnL

-$90.68

Record

62%

551-344 (895)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

CyberHero

Invested

$125.17

Value

$203.47

PnL

+$78.31

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

1rerrrCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$417.79

Value

$172.34

PnL

+$26.11

Record

59%

1108-756 (1864)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$112

Value

$132

PnL

+$20

Record

59%

245-173 (418)

ccllarCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$168.56

Value

$131.21

PnL

-$37.35

Record

46%

358-425 (783)

pauleta23<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$76.46

Value

$63.81

PnL

-$12.65

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$50

Value

$62.75

PnL

+$12.75

Record

57%

4941-3668 (8609)

JocJo<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$22.23

Value

$31.69

PnL

+$9.46

Record

51%

896-863 (1759)

VeryLucky888<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$14.67

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

14 of 24 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.