Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

19 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold BetBoom Team (49%) · BetBoom Team at 54¢ · $175K held · ended Oct 26

BetBoom Team54¢LEGION46¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BetBoom Team

Consensus Traders

BetBoom Team 49%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$174.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 54¢

+0% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

19 of 39 top traders (49%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BetBoom Team54%

LEGION46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BetBoom Team19 traders

Total Value$73.0K

Total Shares132,423

Combined PnL+$8.6K

LEGION20 traders

Total Value$70.2K

Total Shares152,549

Combined PnL$-7.2K

BetBoom Team — 49%LEGION — 51%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

57% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLEGION 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpBetBoom Team 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 56% · 36

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 56% · 43

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	BetBoom Teamavg 49.6¢	$10.2K	$13.4K	+$3.2K	39% 150-238 (388)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LEGIONavg 49.2¢	$13.5K	$12.6K	-$879.96	58% 1836-1323 (3159)
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 61.2¢	$31.6K	$11.9K	+$2.0K	68% 51-24 (75)
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 61.2¢	$7.3K	$6.4K	+$3.1K
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 49.1¢	$5.8K	$5.5K	$-1.1K
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	LEGIONavg 47.1¢	$10.5K	$10.2K	-$248.13	50% 1132-1118 (2250)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	LEGIONavg 44.6¢	$8.9K	$9.2K	+$272.16	45% 59-72 (131)
Skritopoolniy	BetBoom Teamavg 49.2¢	$8.2K	$9.0K	+$798.75	51% 583-561 (1144)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	BetBoom Teamavg 52.6¢	$16.0K	$8.9K	+$6.8K	58% 864-630 (1494)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 50.5¢	$5.6K	$8.4K	+$2.8K	49% 774-817 (1591)
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 50.5¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$353.26
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 7.9¢	$506.6	$3.0K	+$2.4K
CyberScore.liveCTR	LEGIONavg 43.8¢	$7.5K	$7.9K	$-2.3K	46% 392-462 (854)
CORGIICTR	LEGIONavg 52¢	$8.2K	$7.3K	-$946.61	41% 378-544 (922)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	BetBoom Teamavg 47.8¢	$7.3K	$7.0K	+$1.1K	54% 32-27 (59)
GX gxxyy	BetBoom Teamavg 68¢	$8.8K	$7.0K	$-1.8K	69% 469-214 (683)
0xheavy888	BetBoom Teamavg 54.2¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$61.22	56% 6726-5390 (12116)
LU luckycat888888CTR	LEGIONavg 48¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	$-2.2K	48% 13-14 (27)
BL blackmoldCTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	$-1.9K	60% 12-8 (20)
GE GeorgeRe	BetBoom Teamavg 50¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	54% 1060-918 (1978)
QW qwerqr1251251	BetBoom Teamavg 61.7¢	$7.5K	$3.7K	-$157.19	70% 285-125 (410)
MA madar78	BetBoom Teamavg 61.8¢	$25.2K	$3.2K	-$752.74	67% 43-21 (64)
cat3xcat3xCTR	LEGIONavg 39.3¢	$4.3K	$3.2K	-$50.07	56% 315-246 (561)
ST StakesForFun	BetBoom Teamavg 61.5¢	$23.7K	$2.8K	$-1.1K	63% 359-213 (572)
BA Barbozaaa321CTR	LEGIONavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$120	51% 331-317 (648)
IV Ivan948CTR	LEGIONavg 34.4¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$608.16	42% 36-50 (86)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$16	50% 532-526 (1058)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$60
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 50¢	$950	$1.0K	+$76
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	BetBoom Teamavg 58.9¢	$11.4K	$2.4K	$-1.0K	58% 150-110 (260)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 54.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$195.38	48% 372-397 (769)
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 54.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$25.54
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 44¢	$498.19	$520.84	-$169.84

Medo3D

BetBoom Team

Invested

$10,193.23

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

39%

150-238 (388)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LEGION

Invested

$13,467.96

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$879.96

Record

58%

1836-1323 (3159)

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$31,601.33

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

68%

51-24 (75)

Both legs:

BetBoom Team$7,268.4361.2¢+$3.1K

LEGION$5,835.3249.1¢$-1.1K

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

LEGION

Invested

$10,450.76

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$248.13

Record

50%

1132-1118 (2250)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

LEGION

Invested

$8,927.66

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$272.16

Record

45%

59-72 (131)

Skritopoolniy

BetBoom Team

Invested

$8,237.43

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$798.75

Record

51%

583-561 (1144)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

BetBoom Team

Invested

$16,000

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

58%

864-630 (1494)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$5,612.93

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

49%

774-817 (1591)

Both legs:

BetBoom Team$5,106.3250.5¢+$353.26

LEGION$506.67.9¢+$2.4K

CyberScore.liveCTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,506.54

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

46%

392-462 (854)

CORGIICTR

LEGION

Invested

$8,203.98

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$946.61

Record

41%

378-544 (922)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

BetBoom Team

Invested

$7,305.28

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

32-27 (59)

gxxyy

BetBoom Team

Invested

$8,843.87

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

69%

469-214 (683)

0xheavy888

BetBoom Team

Invested

$6,258.63

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$61.22

Record

56%

6726-5390 (12116)

luckycat888888CTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,280

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

blackmoldCTR

LEGION

Invested

$4,699.97

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

GeorgeRe

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,882.45

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1060-918 (1978)

qwerqr1251251

BetBoom Team

Invested

$7,517.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$157.19

Record

70%

285-125 (410)

madar78

BetBoom Team

Invested

$25,166.53

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$752.74

Record

67%

43-21 (64)

cat3xcat3xCTR

LEGION

Invested

$4,339.14

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$50.07

Record

56%

315-246 (561)

StakesForFun

BetBoom Team

Invested

$23,678.93

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

63%

359-213 (572)

Barbozaaa321CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,879.98

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$120

Record

51%

331-317 (648)

Ivan948CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,807.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$608.16

Record

42%

36-50 (86)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$2,390

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$16

Record

50%

532-526 (1058)

Both legs:

LEGION$1,44048¢-$60

BetBoom Team$95050¢+$76

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$11,382.64

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

150-110 (260)

facaigegeARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,382.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$195.38

Record

48%

372-397 (769)

Both legs:

BetBoom Team$1,884.7654.7¢-$25.54

LEGION$498.1944¢-$169.84

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

19 of 39 top traders (49%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

57% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLEGION 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpBetBoom Team 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 56% · 36

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 56% · 43

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BetBoom Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.