Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 29¢ · $349 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$349.01
-$11.63
30¢ → 29¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $217.94 | $210.67 | -$7.26 | 53% 15678-13855 (29533) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.6¢ | $81.59 | $77.43 | -$4.16 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $86.58 | $60.91 | -$0.2 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.