Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Silkeborg IF (67%) · Silkeborg IF at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
Silkeborg IF
3
Silkeborg IF 67%
$1.5K
-$8.02
90.5¢ → 90¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSilkeborg IF at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Silkeborg IFavg 90.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$8.02 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
FO foooool | Silkeborg IFavg 90¢ | $400 | $400 | +$0 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | FC Nordsjællandavg 10¢ | $22.22 | $22.22 | +$0 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.