Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FC Nordsjælland, while the market favors Silkeborg IF (63%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold FC Nordsjælland (27%) · FC Nordsjælland at 37¢ · $31K held · ended Oct 25

FC Nordsjælland37¢Silkeborg IF63¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Nordsjælland

Consensus Traders

FC Nordsjælland 27%

Total Value

$30.8K

Combined PnL

-$95.23

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 37¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Nordsjælland at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Nordsjælland

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Silkeborg IF 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Nordsjælland37%

Silkeborg IF63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Nordsjælland3 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares40,524

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Silkeborg IF8 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares23,771

Combined PnL+$945.5

FC Nordsjælland — 27%Silkeborg IF — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crisp1973CTR	FC Nordsjællandavg 41.6¢	$16.6K	$15.6K	$-1.0K	54% 70-60 (130)
RN1	Silkeborg IFavg 58.3¢	$8.8K	$9.6K	+$849.97	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
GO GoalLineGhost	Silkeborg IFavg 59.6¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$19.31	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888	Silkeborg IFavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0xheavy888	Silkeborg IFavg 59.5¢	$832.53	$845.19	+$12.66	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
UP UpTheBlues	Silkeborg IFavg 61.1¢	$375.17	$392.96	+$17.79	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
SA Saber-greedCTR	FC Nordsjællandavg 40¢	$206.76	$201.59	-$5.17	59% 2262-1574 (3836)
SL slimjoe	Silkeborg IFavg 59¢	$157.53	$162.87	+$5.34	52% 5352-4963 (10315)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Silkeborg IFavg 59.4¢	$145.01	$148.84	+$3.83	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Silkeborg IFavg 60¢	$36.36	$36.97	+$0.61	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FC Nordsjællandavg 39¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0.21	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

crisp1973CTR

FC Nordsjælland

Invested

$16,635.77

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

70-60 (130)

RN1

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$8,750.93

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$849.97

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

GoalLineGhost

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$2,731.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$19.31

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

VeryLucky888

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$1,062

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0xheavy888

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$832.53

Value

$845.19

PnL

+$12.66

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

UpTheBlues

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$375.17

Value

$392.96

PnL

+$17.79

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Saber-greedCTR

FC Nordsjælland

Invested

$206.76

Value

$201.59

PnL

-$5.17

Record

59%

2262-1574 (3836)

slimjoe

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$157.53

Value

$162.87

PnL

+$5.34

Record

52%

5352-4963 (10315)

LeLynxMalynx

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$145.01

Value

$148.84

PnL

+$3.83

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

SnakeBall<$100

Silkeborg IF

Invested

$36.36

Value

$36.97

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FC Nordsjælland

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralFC Nordsjælland at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FC Nordsjælland

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Silkeborg IF 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Nordsjælland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.