Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 61¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$18.9K
-$517.57
62.1¢ → 60.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR crisp1973 | Yesavg 62¢ | $12.3K | $11.5K | -$796.28 | 54% 70-60 (130) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $5.4K | $5.5K | +$144.95 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $634.21 | $696.26 | +$62.05 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $497.87 | $504 | +$44.78 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 64¢ | $322.56 | $322.56 | -$0 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $252.04 | $278.57 | +$26.53 | 53% 13577-12018 (25595) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.8¢ | $21.99 | $22.38 | +$0.4 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $1.85 | +$0 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
Invested
$12,342.31
Value
$11.5K
PnL
-$796.28
Record
54%
70-60 (130)
Invested
$5,395.58
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$144.95
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$634.21
Value
$696.26
PnL
+$62.05
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$497.87
Value
$504
PnL
+$44.78
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
oieshfn345Invested
$322.56
Value
$322.56
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Invested
$252.04
Value
$278.57
PnL
+$26.53
Record
53%
13577-12018 (25595)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.99
Value
$22.38
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.