Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FC Midtjylland vs. Lyngby BK: O/U 3.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 44%
$1.4K
$1.81
46.5¢ → 47.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $384.75 | $384.75 | +$0 | 59% 2259-1573 (3832) |
 us391 | Underavg 52¢ | $223.76 | $232.38 | +$8.63 | 52% 1352-1269 (2621) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $218 | $216 | -$2 | 56% 6332-5072 (11404) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54¢ | $201.91 | $162.01 | +$1.86 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $139.51 | $133.68 | -$5.83 | 59% 13833-9606 (23439) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 46.3¢ | $116.04 | $115.22 | -$0.82 | 68% 30977-14876 (45853) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $69.66 | $69.66 | +$0 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $34.99 | $35.65 | +$0.66 | 57% 4716-3523 (8239) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $32.14 | $31.45 | -$0.69 | 50% 8759-8691 (17450) |
Invested
$384.75
Value
$384.75
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
2259-1573 (3832)
us391Invested
$223.76
Value
$232.38
PnL
+$8.63
Record
52%
1352-1269 (2621)
0xheavy888Invested
$218
Value
$216
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
6332-5072 (11404)
VeryLucky888Invested
$201.91
Value
$162.01
PnL
+$1.86
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$139.51
Value
$133.68
PnL
-$5.83
Record
59%
13833-9606 (23439)
Invested
$116.04
Value
$115.22
PnL
-$0.82
Record
68%
30977-14876 (45853)
Invested
$69.66
Value
$69.66
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
Invested
$34.99
Value
$35.65
PnL
+$0.66
Record
57%
4716-3523 (8239)
Invested
$32.14
Value
$31.45
PnL
-$0.69
Record
50%
8759-8691 (17450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.